https://preview.redd.it/xjhrt7bmej261.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba0c5d69a3b70e0d4d94fd6a5443214a215081fe submitted by Erica_Das to u/Erica_Das [link] [comments] "Final Report will add the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on this industry." Global “Gambling Market” share report highlights various trends and dynamics, new and innovative technology, and mergers & acquisitions that are expected to make a positive impact on the overall industry. Gambling market has been studied in terms of applications, specifications, and quality, which makes a positive impact on the growth of the businesses. The pandemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected every aspect of life globally and this report covers the current COVID-19 impact on the Gambling market growth. Get a Sample Copy of the Report at - https://www.industryresearch.co/enquiry/request-sample/16170892 Global Gambling Market research report growth rates and the market value based on market dynamics, growth factors. The complete knowledge is based on the latest innovations in the industry, opportunities, and trends. In addition to SWOT analysis by key suppliers, the report contains a comprehensive market analysis and major player’s landscape. The report also includes detailed information about the market players that are operating in the market. Some of the major industry players that are listed in the report include:
A detailed examination is done on each of the segments and is provided in the Gambling market report. Based on the performance of the Gambling market in various regions, a detailed study of the Gambling market is also analyzed and covered in the study. Gambling Market Segmentation by Types:
Geographically, the detailed analysis of consumption, revenue, market share, and growth rate, historic and forecast (2015-2025) of the following regions are covered:
Detailed TOC of Global Gambling Market Research Report with Opportunities and Strategies to Boost Growth- COVID-19 Impact and Recovery 1 Market Overview 1.1 Product Definition and Market Characteristics 1.2 Global Gambling Market Size 1.3 Market Segmentation 1.4 Global Macroeconomic Analysis 1.5 SWOT Analysis 2. Market Dynamics 2.1 Market Drivers 2.2 Market Constraints and Challenges 2.3 Emerging Gambling Market Trends 2.4 Impact of COVID-19 2.4.1 Short-term Impact 2.4.2 Long-term Impact 3 Associated Industry Assessment 3.1 Supply Chain Analysis 3.2 Industry Active Participants 3.2.1 Suppliers of Raw Materials 3.2.2 Key Distributors/Retailers 3.3 Alternative Analysis 3.4 The Impact of Covid-19 From the Perspective of Industry Chain 4 Market Competitive Landscape 4.1 Industry Leading Players 4.2 Industry News 4.2.1 Key Product Launch News 4.2.2 M&A and Expansion Plans 5 Analysis of Leading Companies 5.1 Company 1 5.1.1 Company Profile 5.1.2 Business Overview 5.1.3 Gambling Sales, Revenue, Average Selling Price and Gross Margin (2015-2020) 5.1.4 Gambling Products Introduction 5.2 Company 2 5.2.1 Company Profile 5.2.2 Business Overview 5.2.3 Gambling Sales, Revenue, Average Selling Price and Gross Margin (2015-2020) 5.2.4 Gambling Products Introduction 6 Market Analysis and Forecast, By Product Types 6.1 Global Gambling Sales, Revenue and Market Share by Types (2015-2020) 6.2 Global Gambling Market Forecast by Types (2020-2025) 6.3 Global Gambling Sales, Price and Growth Rate by Types (2015-2020) 6.4 Global Gambling Market Revenue and Sales Forecast, by Types (2020-2025) 7 Market Analysis and Forecast, By Applications 7.1 Global Gambling Sales, Revenue and Market Share by Applications (2015-2020) 7.2 Global Gambling Market Forecast by Applications (2020-2025) 7.3 Global Revenue, Sales and Growth Rate by Applications (2015-2020) 7.4 Global Gambling Market Revenue and Sales Forecast, by Applications (2020-2025) 8 Market Analysis and Forecast, By Regions 8.1 Global Gambling Sales by Regions (2015-2020) 8.2 Global Gambling Market Revenue by Regions (2015-2020) 8.3 Global Gambling Market Forecast by Regions (2020-2025) For Detailed TOC - https://www.industryresearch.co/TOC/16170892#TOC Contact Us: Name: Ajay More Phone: US +14242530807/ UK +44 20 3239 8187 Email: [email protected] Our Other Reports: Clean-up Gel Permeation Chromatography Market Revenue, Business Growth 2020: Demand and Applications, Business Statistics, Competitors Strategy, Size, Share Forecast to 2026 | Industry Research.co Fountain Machines Market Growing Business Factors 2020: | Latest Opportunities, Technological Advancements, COVID-19 Impact on Industry Size and Share Forecast to 2025 Sustainable Corn Oil Market - Trends, Revenue, Segmentation 2020 COVID19 Impact Analysis, Demand by Business Growth, Top Key Players Update, and Research Methodology by Forecast to 2025 Plastic & Biopolymer Antimicrobial Packaging Market Size and Growth Forecast 2020 to 2026 | Future Trends, Historical Analysis, Business Statistics and Regional Revenue of Manufacturers with Share Analysis - Industry Research.co Flameless Explosion Vents Market 2020: Global Industry Size, Future Plans of Leading Manufacturers, Growth Key Factors, and Share Forecast to 2026 | Industry Research.co Digital Enhanced Cordless Telephone Market Growth Rate and Business Share 2020: Global Industry Current Trends, Top Companies, Sales and Drivers Analysis Research Report to 2026 | Industry Research.co Almond Market Revenue, Business Growth 2020: Demand and Applications, Business Statistics, Competitors Strategy, Size, Share Forecast to 2026 | Industry Research.co Aviation Leasing Market Growing Business Factors 2020: | Latest Opportunities, Technological Advancements, COVID-19 Impact on Industry Size and Share Forecast to 2025 Bromobutyl Rubber Market by Key Insights 2020, Top Industry Trend, Size and Growth Factors, Segmentation by Key Regions and Future Scope Forecast till 2026 | Industry Research.co Metal-Bonded Carbon Market Analysis with Impact of Covid-19 on Industry Size 2020 | Future Growth and Challenges by Manufacturers and Marketing Strategy Forecast to 2026 | Industry Research.co Home Fragrances Market - Trends, Revenue, Segmentation 2020 COVID19 Impact Analysis, Demand by Business Growth, Top Key Players Update, and Research Methodology by Forecast to 2025 Sports Supplement Market Size and Share Analysis 2020: with Covid-19 Impact on Global Business Growth, Forthcoming Developments Forecast to 2026 | Industry Research.co |
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I joined Supreme Cannabis as President & CEO in April because I was drawn to the Company’s focus on quality – not just in our products, practices, and facilities – but in the emphasis our people place on continuous improvement across the organization. Since joining, I have seen us make significant progress in transforming ourselves into a premier cannabis CPG company.It looks like Beena the beauty is in here to shake things up and bring some growth to this company. She noted that 2020 was a tough year for Cannabis growth, but it is clear a lot of investors are bullish on its opportunity in 2021. She came in and made some tough choices which I like, such as restructuring the organizational model, and adjusting the assumed valuations on parts of the business. Good to hear she made some cuts, shook things up and is looking to bring FIRE back to it’s 2018 hype.
PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play submitted by AlphainvestR to SPACs [link] [comments] Summary
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. The SPAC Deal PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2. The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. https://preview.redd.it/s52e3uj1spf61.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee074dc3208329f4fdeb8805b1d12246de1d37b9 The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. https://preview.redd.it/y5zx14szrpf61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eb9dd9f396306d54457b9ae47d7db74080fbd95 The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. Unit Economics Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex. PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point. The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024. The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex. Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/cze4lxo9spf61.png?width=359&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e6918db50bfeb7dc22ca57fb8ac06c1746d0d43 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections. Forecasting Valuation https://preview.redd.it/siqwt4wvrpf61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=210bd6435ebd54b984e60b8945bbe57f69f5bcc6 From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. https://preview.redd.it/8balzzyurpf61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=13313e6e38cb6c6b8e2bd425d4f63beb9e1e3b87 Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount. Conclusion PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares are trading at $19 today. |
President-elect Joe Biden moves into the White House in the coming week with the biggest stock market tailwind since a presidential Election Day going back to at least 1952.
According to CFRA data that begins that year, the near 13% gain since Nov. 3 would be the biggest increase in the S&P 500 between the election and inauguration if the gains hold. President John F. Kennedy’s 8.8% gain had been the best, followed by President Dwight Eisenhower, with 6.3%, and President Donald Trump, with 6.2%.
Biden’s promise of the $1.9 trillion relief package he announced Thursday is one of the reasons for the stock market’s surge, and it will be a big focus of markets in the week ahead as investors handicap its chances of winning congressional approval.
The Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday starts off the week, and over the next four days several dozen S&P 500 companies report earnings. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Intel and Procter & Gamble are among the companies reporting.
Biden will have no honeymoon
The $1.9 trillion stimulus package is at the top of the agenda. But there is also significant focus on whether his administration will be better at controlling the pandemic and rolling out the vaccine, as he has promised.
“This is the number he came in at. Where do negotiations go from here?” Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, said of the $1.9 trillion package. She pointed to worries about a weakening economy, evident in December’s retail sales data, down a surprising 0.7%, and weekly jobless claims, at the worst level since August.
“You could argue this is Covid-related and therefore what is most important going forward is to see the logistics of the vaccines, inoculations gain orderly momentum. That is crucial for the market,” she said.
Krosby said the market is focused on the inauguration.
“They want to see it go smoothly, and that there’s not any security lapse. The market absorbed the events of Jan. 6. The market looked ahead and figured out that at this point it was a one-off, and the market ended higher on Jan. 6,” she said. “But always the market becomes much more defensive if what we considered an isolated event suddenly broadens out.”
There will be heightened security surrounding the inauguration after a mob of Trump supporters assaulted the Capitol while Congress was in the process of confirming the Electoral College vote. The House last week voted to impeach Trump for inciting the mob, and now there is concern about further incidents in Washington or at state capitals.
Stimulus and stocks
Markets are also watching carefully to see whether Biden can bridge some of the deep divide between Republicans and Democrats, who now hold a thin majority in Congress.
“We’re getting stimulus, and now the question is ‘OK, you’re supposed to be this great compromiser,’” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Political strategists expect Biden will get his stimulus package but it will be trimmed down. Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, said the package could be cut to about $1 trillion based on the size previously discussed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and outgoing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“Does Congress want to have a bipartisan show of support after what has been an extraordinarily tenuous beginning of this year, to put it mildly?” Mills said. He said the stock market should continue to do well because it is going to get stimulus spending.
“D.C. is going to be there with more spending, or consumers are going to be there with more spending if they have the ability to get to a post-vaccine world sooner,” he said.
Stovall said that if history is a guide, the stock market should do well with Biden. The average gain of the S&P 500 in the first 100 days for Democratic presidents is 3.5%, going back to 1952. For Republicans in the same period, it’s been an average 0.5%.
The S&P 500 has also gained an average 11.3% in the first year of a Democratic president, but just 5.7% for Republicans, going back to World War II.
The stock market will continue to monitor the bond market, after the 10-year Treasury yield reached a high of 1.18% this past week, the highest since March. It since slid back to about 1.08% Friday after the weak data.
“Other things are going on in the back room. Bond yields have moved up of late, and it was a change. It gave you a sense of how fast rates can move,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. “It might be a preview of what you can expect this year.”
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday Week Trading: Leans Bearish
Although Martin Luther King Jr. Day was a holiday in many states and cities throughout the U.S. beginning in 1971, it did not become a federal holiday until 1986. Even then it was not observed by the NYSE until 1998. In the 23 years since, the market’s performance during this four-trading-day week has been somewhat lackluster with average weekly performance negative for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. Average losses range from 0.81% by DJIA to 0.16% by NASDAQ. Of the five indexes, not one has a record better than 50/50. However, since 2012 performance has shown signs of improving. DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have risen in six of the last nine years. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have climbed in five of the last eight.
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Seasonal Soft Patch Ahead Starting Next Week
With nine trading sessions of the New Year complete, January and 2021 are off to a solid start. DJIA is up 1.26% as of today’s close, S&P 500 stands at 1.05%, NASDAQ 1.74% and small caps, measured by the Russell 2000 are up a whopping 9.14%. These gains all point to and confirm the return of seasonality that we have recently noted.
Last September was weak as it has historically been, then October exhibited it historical tendency toward volatility while November and December were both positive, in line with typical seasonal patterns. A positive Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days are also encouraging indications that seasonal forces are once again tracking. We expect seasonality will continue to present itself going forward as extraordinary efforts are made to quell the pandemic and return to a pre-Covid, open-for-business, way of life.
Due to the reemergence of seasonality, we would not be surprised to see some market weakness in the second half of January next week that could persist throughout the rest of January and possible spill over into February. In the following seasonal pattern chart of January, the last 21 years of data for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been plotted with January 2021 through today’s close plotted on the right vertical axis.
Over the last 21 years, it has been NASDAQ leading at the halfway point, this year it is Russell 2000. Other than that, the major indexes have been tracking their historical patterns fairly well. There was strength early on, followed by sideways action. Should the current trend follow historical patterns then weakness after the eleventh trading day (January 18) is possible.
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5 Charts on the Democratic Blue Wave
One of the top questions we’ve received recently has been what a blue wave may mean for investments. After the Democrats won the two Senate runoff elections in Georgia, they will now control the White House and both chambers of Congress. Our January 11 Market Policy Projections for 2021 gave some of the immediate and longer-term policy impacts of the Democratic “blue wave,” and here we surf the blue wave with some interesting charts.
First off, blue waves have not been bearish for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index higher 6 of the past 7 times and up a respectable 9.1% on average since 1950.
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We shared this chart in 2020, and it shows that historically, stocks do better if an incumbent president wins versus a new president in office. This makes sense, as a new president will bring in new policies and likely question marks—while you know what you will get with a re-elected president. Remember, markets hate uncertainty and surprises.
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“Make it all nine new Democratic presidents since 1900 to bring with them both the House and the Senate. In fact, stocks do quite well that first year under such circumstances, up nearly 12% on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Maybe investors shouldn’t fear a blue wave after all.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, when a new Democratic president has brought with them the House and Senate, stocks gained that first year of their new presidency 6 of 8 times. What stands out to us for 2021, though, is the House majority is only 11—the smallest for a new Democratic president since 1900.
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Looking at all of the times the Democrats controlled the House (since the 35th Congress when it was Democrats and Republicans), the 11-seat majority is the lowest since 9 seats in 1879. Yes, the Democrats are in power, but this small majority will make it very tough for any of the more extreme policies to pass.
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Lastly, the Senate is split a perfect 50/50, which is again extremely rare. In the chart below we share the seat difference between the two parties. “A 50/50 Senate coupled with only an 11-seat majority in the House, and it is safe to say we have about as close to a perfectly divided government as we’ve ever seen,” said Detrick.
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Rest of the World Catching Up
Over the past year, US equities—proxied by the S&P 500 (SPY)—have consistently outperformed global equities more broadly. As shown below, over the past year the S&P 500 (SPY) has risen just over 16%. That compares to 11.26% for the rest of the world as proxied by the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex US ETF (VEU). Breaking that down a bit further by developed and emerging markets, US equities have outpaced both emerging and other developed markets. While emerging markets (SPEM) are right on the heels of the US with just under a 14.78% gain, developed markets (SPDW) have lagged with just a 10.56% gain. So far in 2021, though, the rest of the world has been outperforming the US. Whereas SPY has risen around 1% YTD, VEU is up almost 3 times that. Emerging markets in particular have shown the greatest degree of strength currently having risen 3.87%. Meanwhile, SPDW has gained less (2.7%), though, it is still outperforming the US.
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In the charts below, we show the ratio of SPY to these other ETFs. A rising line would indicate that the US is outperforming these other measures of global equities while a downward trending line indicates underperformance of SPY. As shown, the longer-term trend has pretty consistently been US outperformance over the past decade but that has faltered at the tail end of 2020 and into 2021. In the case of emerging markets, the line has been on the decline throughout the second half of 2020 as the ratio has hit its lowest level in a year in the past week. The S&P 500's underperformance relative to other developed markets (SPDW) has been more recent as that line peaked in early September but the trend remains the same over the past few months with SPY weaker than global equities more broadly. That is further exemplified by the recent downtrend of SPY versus the All World ex US ETF (VEU).
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Small Business Owners Didn't Like the Election Results
Today's release of the December Small Business Optimism Index from the NFIB saw a large drop as the index dropped from 101.4 to 95.9. After a sharp drop in the wake of the COVID outbreak, the index bounced back nicely but now looks like it's really rolling over.
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Not only was this month's headline index weak, but it caught economists completely off guard. While the index fell to 95.9, economists were expecting a drop to 100.2. That 4.3 spread between the actual and expected reading was the biggest miss relative to expectations in more than five years (July 2015) and was the third weakest reading relative to expectations since the December 2012 report.
Given the big drop in the headline index and the fact that it was so weak relative to expectations, should we be concerned about a double-dip? As an investor, we should always be worried about what could go wrong, but in the case of this report, you can probably wait for further confirmation from other data. The reason for the skepticism is that you could argue that politics plays a role in this report. To illustrate this, we would note that going back to 2010 (as far back as we have data) and right up through Election Day 2016, the NFIB only topped expectations 42% of the time. Following Trump's election in 2016, though, this index surged and has since topped expectations 63% of the time. Since Election Day 2020, though, the headline index has now missed expectations three times.
From a longer-term perspective, dating back to 1974, the average reading of the NFIB Small Business Index during Republican administrations has been 100.1 while the average level under Democratic Presidents has been 96.2. Now, that would make sense if the economy was also in a recession more often in those periods, but over that same span, even though the percentages are low for both political parties (<20%), the economy has actually been in a recession a higher percentage of the time during Republican administrations than it has in Democratic administrations.
The lesson to take from all this is that even if it's often hard to separate when it comes to business or investing (or a lot of other aspects of our lives for that matter), it's usually best to leave politics outside.
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Monday 1.18.21 Before Market Open:
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NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF M.L.K. DAY.)
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NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF M.L.K. DAY.)
Tuesday 1.19.21 Before Market Open:
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Friday 1.22.21 Before Market Open:
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Netflix, Inc. $497.98
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $6.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.35 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.15% with revenue increasing by 20.71%. Short interest has decreased by 20.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% above its 200 day moving average of $476.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 8, 2021 there was some notable buying of 8,583 contracts of the $500.00 put and 8,564 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
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Bank of America Corp. $33.01
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $20.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 24.32% with revenue decreasing by 25.45%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 30.0% above its 200 day moving average of $25.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 12, 2021 there was some notable buying of 96,114 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
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FuelCell Energy, Inc. $15.84
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, January 21, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $15.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 41.67% with revenue increasing by 44.19%. Short interest has increased by 17.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 533.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 292.9% above its 200 day moving average of $4.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 7,656 contracts of the $15.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 22.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.7% move in recent quarters.
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Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $301.01
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.99 per share on revenue of $9.47 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 49.04% with revenue decreasing by 31.44%. Short interest has decreased by 12.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 40.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.5% above its 200 day moving average of $208.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 12, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,897 contracts of the $310.00 call expiring on Friday, January 22, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.7% move in recent quarters.
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Procter & Gamble Co. $134.78
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $19.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.34% with revenue increasing by 4.99%. Short interest has increased by 18.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $129.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 11,876 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 3.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
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Intel Corp. $57.58
Intel Corp. (INTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, January 21, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.10 per share on revenue of $17.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.10 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 27.63% with revenue decreasing by 13.70%. Short interest has decreased by 42.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.9% above its 200 day moving average of $53.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 14, 2021 there was some notable buying of 28,636 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 22, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters.
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Charles Schwab Corp. $58.75
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.70 per share on revenue of $4.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.11% with revenue increasing by 58.48%. Short interest has decreased by 80.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 48.0% above its 200 day moving average of $39.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 6, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,777 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
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UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $351.30
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $65.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 38.72% with revenue increasing by 7.12%. Short interest has increased by 24.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $310.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 8, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,280 contracts of the $360.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
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Morgan Stanley $75.24
Morgan Stanley (MS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.29 per share on revenue of $11.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.50% with revenue decreasing by 17.17%. Short interest has decreased by 35.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 50.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.0% above its 200 day moving average of $51.19. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 14, 2021 there was some notable buying of 14,013 contracts of the $80.00 call expiring on Friday, January 29, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
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Halliburton Company $20.74
Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.15 per share on revenue of $3.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 53.13% with revenue decreasing by 37.78%. Short interest has decreased by 15.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.1% above its 200 day moving average of $14.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 11, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,823 contracts of the $21.00 put expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.
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PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play submitted by AlphainvestR to TheDailyDD [link] [comments] Summary
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. The SPAC Deal PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2. The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. https://preview.redd.it/c4vn3wtzo9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee1759789b07a8f84b5340b9bd88ba33f7e39cca The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. https://preview.redd.it/1tw33st1p9g61.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca2fad49c9c136dd4e6881f59965469a722bb20f An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. https://preview.redd.it/v4e28pw3p9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=32e5e3f697bb3cededce21b510c86bc50ee54f63 Unit Economics https://preview.redd.it/jm8d9bhfp9g61.png?width=1013&format=png&auto=webp&s=833182a47b463fc7190c078236cccfe121e9314f Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex. PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point. The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024. The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex. Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/qgw28wjip9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a4b356b88c2dda1bc87fce0b79a3f13ef9bb9b0 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections. Forecasting Valuation From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. https://preview.redd.it/lv19ramnp9g61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b52a36e14408714d9d53af64a566c165e1c8a8 Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount. https://preview.redd.it/uia8vkjop9g61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd93ab3b38c14f6593a55e7fd1c067141a4be7c3 Conclusion PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares trading at $27 today. DISCLOSURE: I am currently Long common stock of ROCH. All investment decisions are yours to make. |
President-elect Joe Biden moves into the White House in the coming week with the biggest stock market tailwind since a presidential Election Day going back to at least 1952.
According to CFRA data that begins that year, the near 13% gain since Nov. 3 would be the biggest increase in the S&P 500 between the election and inauguration if the gains hold. President John F. Kennedy’s 8.8% gain had been the best, followed by President Dwight Eisenhower, with 6.3%, and President Donald Trump, with 6.2%.
Biden’s promise of the $1.9 trillion relief package he announced Thursday is one of the reasons for the stock market’s surge, and it will be a big focus of markets in the week ahead as investors handicap its chances of winning congressional approval.
The Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday starts off the week, and over the next four days several dozen S&P 500 companies report earnings. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Intel and Procter & Gamble are among the companies reporting.
Biden will have no honeymoon
The $1.9 trillion stimulus package is at the top of the agenda. But there is also significant focus on whether his administration will be better at controlling the pandemic and rolling out the vaccine, as he has promised.
“This is the number he came in at. Where do negotiations go from here?” Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, said of the $1.9 trillion package. She pointed to worries about a weakening economy, evident in December’s retail sales data, down a surprising 0.7%, and weekly jobless claims, at the worst level since August.
“You could argue this is Covid-related and therefore what is most important going forward is to see the logistics of the vaccines, inoculations gain orderly momentum. That is crucial for the market,” she said.
Krosby said the market is focused on the inauguration.
“They want to see it go smoothly, and that there’s not any security lapse. The market absorbed the events of Jan. 6. The market looked ahead and figured out that at this point it was a one-off, and the market ended higher on Jan. 6,” she said. “But always the market becomes much more defensive if what we considered an isolated event suddenly broadens out.”
There will be heightened security surrounding the inauguration after a mob of Trump supporters assaulted the Capitol while Congress was in the process of confirming the Electoral College vote. The House last week voted to impeach Trump for inciting the mob, and now there is concern about further incidents in Washington or at state capitals.
Stimulus and stocks
Markets are also watching carefully to see whether Biden can bridge some of the deep divide between Republicans and Democrats, who now hold a thin majority in Congress.
“We’re getting stimulus, and now the question is ‘OK, you’re supposed to be this great compromiser,’” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Political strategists expect Biden will get his stimulus package but it will be trimmed down. Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, said the package could be cut to about $1 trillion based on the size previously discussed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and outgoing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“Does Congress want to have a bipartisan show of support after what has been an extraordinarily tenuous beginning of this year, to put it mildly?” Mills said. He said the stock market should continue to do well because it is going to get stimulus spending.
“D.C. is going to be there with more spending, or consumers are going to be there with more spending if they have the ability to get to a post-vaccine world sooner,” he said.
Stovall said that if history is a guide, the stock market should do well with Biden. The average gain of the S&P 500 in the first 100 days for Democratic presidents is 3.5%, going back to 1952. For Republicans in the same period, it’s been an average 0.5%.
The S&P 500 has also gained an average 11.3% in the first year of a Democratic president, but just 5.7% for Republicans, going back to World War II.
The stock market will continue to monitor the bond market, after the 10-year Treasury yield reached a high of 1.18% this past week, the highest since March. It since slid back to about 1.08% Friday after the weak data.
“Other things are going on in the back room. Bond yields have moved up of late, and it was a change. It gave you a sense of how fast rates can move,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. “It might be a preview of what you can expect this year.”
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday Week Trading: Leans Bearish
Although Martin Luther King Jr. Day was a holiday in many states and cities throughout the U.S. beginning in 1971, it did not become a federal holiday until 1986. Even then it was not observed by the NYSE until 1998. In the 23 years since, the market’s performance during this four-trading-day week has been somewhat lackluster with average weekly performance negative for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. Average losses range from 0.81% by DJIA to 0.16% by NASDAQ. Of the five indexes, not one has a record better than 50/50. However, since 2012 performance has shown signs of improving. DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have risen in six of the last nine years. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have climbed in five of the last eight.
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Seasonal Soft Patch Ahead Starting Next Week
With nine trading sessions of the New Year complete, January and 2021 are off to a solid start. DJIA is up 1.26% as of today’s close, S&P 500 stands at 1.05%, NASDAQ 1.74% and small caps, measured by the Russell 2000 are up a whopping 9.14%. These gains all point to and confirm the return of seasonality that we have recently noted.
Last September was weak as it has historically been, then October exhibited it historical tendency toward volatility while November and December were both positive, in line with typical seasonal patterns. A positive Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days are also encouraging indications that seasonal forces are once again tracking. We expect seasonality will continue to present itself going forward as extraordinary efforts are made to quell the pandemic and return to a pre-Covid, open-for-business, way of life.
Due to the reemergence of seasonality, we would not be surprised to see some market weakness in the second half of January next week that could persist throughout the rest of January and possible spill over into February. In the following seasonal pattern chart of January, the last 21 years of data for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been plotted with January 2021 through today’s close plotted on the right vertical axis.
Over the last 21 years, it has been NASDAQ leading at the halfway point, this year it is Russell 2000. Other than that, the major indexes have been tracking their historical patterns fairly well. There was strength early on, followed by sideways action. Should the current trend follow historical patterns then weakness after the eleventh trading day (January 18) is possible.
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5 Charts on the Democratic Blue Wave
One of the top questions we’ve received recently has been what a blue wave may mean for investments. After the Democrats won the two Senate runoff elections in Georgia, they will now control the White House and both chambers of Congress. Our January 11 Market Policy Projections for 2021 gave some of the immediate and longer-term policy impacts of the Democratic “blue wave,” and here we surf the blue wave with some interesting charts.
First off, blue waves have not been bearish for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index higher 6 of the past 7 times and up a respectable 9.1% on average since 1950.
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We shared this chart in 2020, and it shows that historically, stocks do better if an incumbent president wins versus a new president in office. This makes sense, as a new president will bring in new policies and likely question marks—while you know what you will get with a re-elected president. Remember, markets hate uncertainty and surprises.
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“Make it all nine new Democratic presidents since 1900 to bring with them both the House and the Senate. In fact, stocks do quite well that first year under such circumstances, up nearly 12% on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Maybe investors shouldn’t fear a blue wave after all.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, when a new Democratic president has brought with them the House and Senate, stocks gained that first year of their new presidency 6 of 8 times. What stands out to us for 2021, though, is the House majority is only 11—the smallest for a new Democratic president since 1900.
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Looking at all of the times the Democrats controlled the House (since the 35th Congress when it was Democrats and Republicans), the 11-seat majority is the lowest since 9 seats in 1879. Yes, the Democrats are in power, but this small majority will make it very tough for any of the more extreme policies to pass.
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Lastly, the Senate is split a perfect 50/50, which is again extremely rare. In the chart below we share the seat difference between the two parties. “A 50/50 Senate coupled with only an 11-seat majority in the House, and it is safe to say we have about as close to a perfectly divided government as we’ve ever seen,” said Detrick.
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Rest of the World Catching Up
Over the past year, US equities—proxied by the S&P 500 (SPY)—have consistently outperformed global equities more broadly. As shown below, over the past year the S&P 500 (SPY) has risen just over 16%. That compares to 11.26% for the rest of the world as proxied by the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex US ETF (VEU). Breaking that down a bit further by developed and emerging markets, US equities have outpaced both emerging and other developed markets. While emerging markets (SPEM) are right on the heels of the US with just under a 14.78% gain, developed markets (SPDW) have lagged with just a 10.56% gain. So far in 2021, though, the rest of the world has been outperforming the US. Whereas SPY has risen around 1% YTD, VEU is up almost 3 times that. Emerging markets in particular have shown the greatest degree of strength currently having risen 3.87%. Meanwhile, SPDW has gained less (2.7%), though, it is still outperforming the US.
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In the charts below, we show the ratio of SPY to these other ETFs. A rising line would indicate that the US is outperforming these other measures of global equities while a downward trending line indicates underperformance of SPY. As shown, the longer-term trend has pretty consistently been US outperformance over the past decade but that has faltered at the tail end of 2020 and into 2021. In the case of emerging markets, the line has been on the decline throughout the second half of 2020 as the ratio has hit its lowest level in a year in the past week. The S&P 500's underperformance relative to other developed markets (SPDW) has been more recent as that line peaked in early September but the trend remains the same over the past few months with SPY weaker than global equities more broadly. That is further exemplified by the recent downtrend of SPY versus the All World ex US ETF (VEU).
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Small Business Owners Didn't Like the Election Results
Today's release of the December Small Business Optimism Index from the NFIB saw a large drop as the index dropped from 101.4 to 95.9. After a sharp drop in the wake of the COVID outbreak, the index bounced back nicely but now looks like it's really rolling over.
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Not only was this month's headline index weak, but it caught economists completely off guard. While the index fell to 95.9, economists were expecting a drop to 100.2. That 4.3 spread between the actual and expected reading was the biggest miss relative to expectations in more than five years (July 2015) and was the third weakest reading relative to expectations since the December 2012 report.
Given the big drop in the headline index and the fact that it was so weak relative to expectations, should we be concerned about a double-dip? As an investor, we should always be worried about what could go wrong, but in the case of this report, you can probably wait for further confirmation from other data. The reason for the skepticism is that you could argue that politics plays a role in this report. To illustrate this, we would note that going back to 2010 (as far back as we have data) and right up through Election Day 2016, the NFIB only topped expectations 42% of the time. Following Trump's election in 2016, though, this index surged and has since topped expectations 63% of the time. Since Election Day 2020, though, the headline index has now missed expectations three times.
From a longer-term perspective, dating back to 1974, the average reading of the NFIB Small Business Index during Republican administrations has been 100.1 while the average level under Democratic Presidents has been 96.2. Now, that would make sense if the economy was also in a recession more often in those periods, but over that same span, even though the percentages are low for both political parties (<20%), the economy has actually been in a recession a higher percentage of the time during Republican administrations than it has in Democratic administrations.
The lesson to take from all this is that even if it's often hard to separate when it comes to business or investing (or a lot of other aspects of our lives for that matter), it's usually best to leave politics outside.
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Monday 1.18.21 Before Market Open:
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Netflix, Inc. $497.98
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $6.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.35 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.15% with revenue increasing by 20.71%. Short interest has decreased by 20.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% above its 200 day moving average of $476.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 8, 2021 there was some notable buying of 8,583 contracts of the $500.00 put and 8,564 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
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Bank of America Corp. $33.01
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $20.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 24.32% with revenue decreasing by 25.45%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 30.0% above its 200 day moving average of $25.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 12, 2021 there was some notable buying of 96,114 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
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FuelCell Energy, Inc. $15.84
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, January 21, 2021. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $15.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 41.67% with revenue increasing by 44.19%. Short interest has increased by 17.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 533.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 292.9% above its 200 day moving average of $4.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 7,656 contracts of the $15.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 22.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.7% move in recent quarters.
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Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $301.01
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.99 per share on revenue of $9.47 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 49.04% with revenue decreasing by 31.44%. Short interest has decreased by 12.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 40.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.5% above its 200 day moving average of $208.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 12, 2021 there was some notable buying of 3,897 contracts of the $310.00 call expiring on Friday, January 22, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.7% move in recent quarters.
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Procter & Gamble Co. $134.78
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $19.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.34% with revenue increasing by 4.99%. Short interest has increased by 18.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $129.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 7, 2021 there was some notable buying of 11,876 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 3.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
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Intel Corp. $57.58
Intel Corp. (INTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, January 21, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.10 per share on revenue of $17.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.10 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 27.63% with revenue decreasing by 13.70%. Short interest has decreased by 42.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.9% above its 200 day moving average of $53.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 14, 2021 there was some notable buying of 28,636 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 22, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters.
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Charles Schwab Corp. $58.75
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.70 per share on revenue of $4.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.11% with revenue increasing by 58.48%. Short interest has decreased by 80.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 48.0% above its 200 day moving average of $39.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 6, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,777 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
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UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $351.30
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $65.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 38.72% with revenue increasing by 7.12%. Short interest has increased by 24.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $310.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 8, 2021 there was some notable buying of 1,280 contracts of the $360.00 call expiring on Friday, February 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
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Morgan Stanley $75.24
Morgan Stanley (MS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.29 per share on revenue of $11.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.50% with revenue decreasing by 17.17%. Short interest has decreased by 35.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 50.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.0% above its 200 day moving average of $51.19. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 14, 2021 there was some notable buying of 14,013 contracts of the $80.00 call expiring on Friday, January 29, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
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Halliburton Company $20.74
Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, January 19, 2021. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.15 per share on revenue of $3.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 53.13% with revenue decreasing by 37.78%. Short interest has decreased by 15.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.1% above its 200 day moving average of $14.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 11, 2021 there was some notable buying of 2,823 contracts of the $21.00 put expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.
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Online Gambling Market Growth & Trends. The global online gambling market size is expected to reach USD 127.3 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The market is expected to gain traction over the forecast period. Growing popularity of betting across the globe and ... Global Internet Gambling and Sports Betting Market (COVID-19 Impact) Size, Status and Forecast 2020-2026 On the whole, the report proves to be an effective tool that players can use to gain a ... The global online gambling market size was valued at USD 53.7 billion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027. The high internet penetration and increasing use of mobile phones among individuals for playing online games from their homes and public places are driving the market. In addition, factors such as easy access to online ... Global "Gambling Market" report 2020 covers the top regions and countries, which shows a regional development status, including market size, share, revenue, and much more across the globe. The complete research of the Gambling Market 2020 report presents you analysis of market size, share, growth, trends, cost structure, statistical and comprehensive data of the global market. Also, magnify ... Jan 21, 2021 (Heraldkeepers) -- Updated Research Report of Online Betting for Sports and Casinos Market 2020-2025: Overview The global online gambling market... The online gambling market size surpassed USD 55 billion in 2019 and is anticipated to grow at 16.5% CAGR between 2020 and 2026 owing to advent of several new technologies, such as AI, VR, cyborg, and machine learning. Global Gambling Market Report 2020 by Key Players Types Applications Countries Market Size Forecast to 2026 (Based on 2020 COVID-19 Worldwide Spread); +49 322 210 92714 (GMT OFFICE HOURS) +1-855-465-4651 (US/CAN TOLL FREE) +1-386-310-3803 (US OFFICE NO) ... Global Gambling Market Report 2020 by Key Players, Types, Applications, Countries, Market Size, Forecast to 2026 (Based on 2020 COVID-19 Worldwide Spread) SELECT LICENSE: Individual Price $3,400.00. Multi User Price $5,200.00 ... The global online gambling market size is expected to reach USD 127.3 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027. The market is expected to gain traction over the forecast period. The global gambling market is expected to grow from $465.76 billion in 2020 to $516.03 billion in 2021 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.8%. The growth is mainly due to the companies ...
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