There was some conversations going around NBA twitter, about two months ago now, about the liklihood of current stars passing the current perceived legends (one I remember specifically was, what's more likely, Harden>Kobe, Steph>Magic, or Durant>Bird). That conversation piqued my interest a ton, I don't think we do a great job of contextualizing non-Lebron stars and so I thought I'd try my hand at just that. To make it something I could tangibly work towards, I narrowed down the idea to "How Many Top 25 Players are in the League", and producing at a high level.
To do that, needed to establish something resembling a consensus All-Time ranking, and I used Simmons Pyramid and top 50 lists from
CBS and
SI. The point of doing that instead of making my own list from scratch was that the focus of this analysis was contextualizing current players and I was hoping it would save time and prevent people from yelling at me. Ultimately, I basically used those as a framework to get a consensus group of 25 players, and then I put them in tiers (GOATs, Generational Talents, and Greats) from there based on the consulted works and criteria I thought made some sense. All the stats are pulled from Basketball Reference, so shout out to them. There's also pre-80s tiers from Greats and GOATs, just because the stats from that era are so weird and it would make any threshold basically pointless. The descriptions/reqs for each tier aren't supposed to be end all be alls, just a general idea, though I'm sure Kobe being in Tier 3 instead of Tier 2 will bother some people (the cutoff line basically became three titles as The Guy vs two, because I feel like the two title guys are closer to Malone than they are to Duncan). Anyway, another housekeeping note, I listed Wade and Dirk among the established All-Time Top 25 because they're role players at this point, and I wanted to focus on guys still playing at a star level.After the list of 'consensus' top 25 are four sections looking at current players, all focused on different career points and viability. And that's pretty much it, this is long as hell, but covered a lot of ground.
Last note on the formatting, the career profiles are sequenced like:
Player Name
- career stats
- peak season
- awards/accolades
with notations for any top ten ranking within major categories. There are a couple exceptions, Dirk and Havlicek have a line for
peak season as well as an extra for
playoff peaks just below it, because they had unreal playoff runs that didn't conicide with their regular season peaks that I felt were relevant; and Harden's
peak season is a consecutive two years, because I thought it was impressive mostly.
The projections for current players are based on 538s CARMELO model, it projects BPM and RPM (translated into wins), so players on good teams are rewarded and the more games you play in, assuming you're a plus player, the more you're rewarded. The stat doesn't trace production though, it's a plus/minus metric, I'm using it as a baseline for like, for how long and how good is each guy expected to be.
Link here to CARMELO Oh also, I actually ended up with 26, not 25 All-Timers, but I thought that would make the title even more nonsensical than it is and that's why I'm telling you here. On with it forreal now >
TL ; DR
Current Consensus All-Time Rankings
Tier 1: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain Tier 2: Shaquille O’ Neal, Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson Tier 3: Kobe Bryant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwayne Wade, John Stockton, Kevin Garnett, David Robinson, Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Moses Malone, Julius Erving, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bob Pettit Current Stars With All-Time Careers
Part 1, Already In: Lebron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant Part 2, All-Time Peak but Short on GP: Stephen Curry, James Harden 3 and 4 aren't defintive , but are notable Part 3, Toss Up: Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook Part 4, Too Soon to Tell: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Karl Anthony-Towns, Ben Simmons From my research I'd say there's at least 5 of the 25 best players ever in the league now, playing at a high level, and possibly as many as 11. Safe bet seems like 8 seems, it's hard to imagine at least one of BookeRuss/KAT/Simmons as well as Davis and Giannis busting hard enough to knock them off the path they've set for themselves and once the Lebron era finishes up the standard will be raised a good amount. This lil paragraph is gonna be posted at the end if you stick around till then. And for the people who like to read lots of stats and some words, enjoy ~
Pre-80s Tier 1 - GOATs
Bill Russell
- 963 GP: 14k Points ⋄ 21k Rebounds 2nd All-Time ⋄ 4k Assists ⋄ 163 Win Shares ⋄
- 18.9 ppg/23.6 rpg: 60-20 Record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄
- 5x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 1x All-Defense ⋄ 4x Rebound Leader ⋄ 11x Champion ⋄
Wilt Chamberlain
- 1045 GP: 31k Points 5th All-Time ⋄ 24k Rebounds All-Time Leader ⋄ 4.6k Assists ⋄ 247 Win Shares 2nd All-Time ⋄
- 50.4 ppg/25.7 rpg: 59-21 Record ⋄ NBA Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 4x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 2x All-Defense ⋄ 7x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄ 2x Champion ⋄
Tier 1 - GOATs 1000+ GP, 10x+ All-NBA, 6x+ combined MVP and FMVP, top 5 all-time points and win shares
Michael Jordan
- 1072 GP: 32k Points 4th All-Time ⋄ 6.7k Rebounds ⋄ 5.6k Assists ⋄ 2.5k Steals 3rd All-Time ⋄ 214 Win Shares 5th All-Time ⋄
- 30.4 ppg/6.6 rpg/4.3 apg/2.2 spg: 72-10 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 5x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 9x All-Defense ⋄ 10x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x DPOY ⋄ ROY ⋄ 6x NBA Champion ⋄ 6x FMVP ⋄
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
- 1560 GP 2nd All-Time: 38k Points All Time Leader ⋄ 17k Rebounds 3rd All-Time ⋄ 5.6k Assists ⋄ 3.2k Blocks 3rd All-Time ⋄ 273 Win Shares All Time Leader ⋄
- 31.7 ppg/16.0 rpg/3.3 apg: 66-16 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 6x MVP ⋄ 15x All-NBA ⋄ 11x All-Defense ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 4x Block Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 6x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Tier 2: Generational Talents 900x+ GP, 4x combined FMVP and MVP, 10x All-NBA
Tim Duncan
- 1392 GP: 26.5k Points ⋄ 15k Rebounds 6th All-Time ⋄ 4.2k Assists ⋄ 3k Blocks 5th All-Time ⋄ 1k Steals ⋄ 206 Win Shares 7th All-Time ⋄
- 22.2 ppg/12.9 rpg/3.9 apg/2.9 bpg: 60-22 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 15x All-NBA ⋄ 15x All-Defense ⋄ ROY ⋄ 5x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Magic Johnson
- 906 GP: 17k Points ⋄ 6.6k Rebounds ⋄ 10k Assists 5th All-Time ⋄ 1.7k Steals ⋄ 156 Win Shares ⋄
- 23.9 ppg/6.3 rpg/11.2 apg/1.7 spg: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 3x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 4x Assist Leader ⋄ 5x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Larry Bird
- 897 GP: 21.8k Points ⋄ 9k Rebounds ⋄ 5.7k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Steals ⋄ 146 Win Shares ⋄
- 25.8 pgg/9.8 rpg/6.8 apg/2.0 spg: 67-15 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 3x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ ROY ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Shaquille O’Neal
- 1207 GP: 28.6k Points 8th All Time ⋄ 13k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 2.7k Blocks 8th All-Time ⋄ 182 Win Shares ⋄
- 29.7 ppg/13.6 rpg/3.8 apg/3.0 bpg: 67-15 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 14x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 4x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Pre-80s Tier 3:Greats
Oscar Robertson
- 1040 GP: 26.7k Points ⋄ 9.9k Assists 6th All Time ⋄ 7.8k Rebounds ⋄ 189 Win Shares ⋄
- 31.4 ppg/11.0 apg/9.9 rpg: 55-25 record ⋄ MVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 6x Assist Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Jerry West
- 932 GP: 25.2k Points ⋄ 6.2k Assists ⋄ 5.4k Rebounds ⋄ 162 Win Shares ⋄
- 30.8 ppg/5.4 apg/7.9 rpg: 54-26 record ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 12x All-NBA ⋄ 5x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄ 1x FMVP only FMVP in a losing series-37.9 ppg/7.4 apg/4.7 rpg ⋄
John Havlicek
- 1270 GP: 26.4k Points ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 6k Assists ⋄ 132 Win Shares ⋄
- 28.9 ppg/9.0 rpg/7.5 apg: 44-38 record ⋄
- 18 GP/27.1 ppg/6.4 rpg/6.0 apg: 12-6 record ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 11x All-NBA ⋄ 8x All-Defense ⋄ 8x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
Elgin Baylor
- 846 GP: 23k Points ⋄ 11.5k Rebounds ⋄ 3.6k Assists ⋄ 104 Win Shares ⋄
- 34.0 ppg/14.3 rpg/4.8 apg: 54-26 record ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 10x All-NBA ⋄ ROY ⋄
Bob Pettit
- 792 GP: 20.9k Points ⋄ 12.8k Rebounds ⋄ 2.4k Assists ⋄ 136 Win Shares ⋄
- 29.2ppg/16.4 rpg/3.1 apg: 49-23 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Tier 3: Greats Any of 1x MVP/double digit All-NBA/top ten in any major category gets at least a look here. Hakeem and Kobe could be up a tier, I just think they're closer to Malone than they are to Duncan, for example.
Kobe Bryant
- 1346 GP: 33.6k Points 3rd All-Time ⋄ 7k Rebounds ⋄ 6.3k Assists ⋄ 172 Win Shares ⋄
- 26.8 ppg/5.2 rpg/4.9 apg: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 15x All-NBA ⋄ 12x All-Defense ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 5x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Karl Malone
- 1476 GP 4th All-Time:36.9k Points 2nd All-Time ⋄ 15k Rebounds 7th All-Time ⋄ 5.3k Assists ⋄ 2k Steals 10th All-Time ⋄ 1k Blocks ⋄ 234 Win Shares 3rd All-Time ⋄
- 27.4 ppg/9.9 rpg/4.5 apg/1.4 spg: 64-18 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 14x All-NBA ⋄ 4x All-Defense ⋄
Hakeem Olajuwon
- 1238 GP: 26.9k Points ⋄ 13.7k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 3.8k Blocks All-Time Leader ⋄ 2k Steals 8th All-Time ⋄ 163 Win Shares ⋄
- 27.3 ppg/11.9 rpg/3.6 apg/3.7 bpg/1.6 spg: 58-24 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ DPOY ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 12x All-NBA ⋄ 9x All-Defense ⋄ 2x DPOY ⋄ 2x Rebound Leader ⋄ 4x Block Leader ⋄ 2x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Moses Malone
- 1455 GP 7th All-Time: 29.6k Points 9th All-Time ⋄ 17.8k Rebounds 5th All-Time ⋄ 1.9k Assists ⋄ 1.9k Blocks ⋄ 179 Win Shares ⋄
- 24.5 ppg/15.3 rpg/2.0 bpg/1.1spg: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 3x MVP ⋄ 8x All-NBA ⋄ 2x All-Defense ⋄ 4x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
John Stockton
- 1504 GP 3rd All-Time:19.7k Points ⋄ 15.8k Assists All-Time Leader ⋄ 4k Rebounds ⋄ 3.2k Steals All-Time Leader ⋄ 208 Win Shares 6th All-Time ⋄
- 14.7 ppg/12.3 apg/3.1 rpg/2.4 spg: 60-22 record ⋄
- 11x All-NBA ⋄ 5x All-Defense ⋄ 9x Assist Leader ⋄
Charles Barkley
- 1073 GP: 23.8k Points ⋄ 12.5k Rebounds ⋄ 4.2k Assists ⋄ 177 Win Shares ⋄
- 25.6ppg/12.2 rpg/5.1 apg/1.6 spg/1.0 bpg: 62-20 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄
Dirk Nowitzki - Active
- 1471 GP 5th All-Time :31k Points 6th All-Time ⋄ 11k Rebounds ⋄ 3.6k Assists ⋄ 206 Win Shares 8th All-Time ⋄
- 24.6 ppg/8.9 rpg/3.4 apg/50-40-90 splits: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄
- 21 GP/27.7 ppg/8.1 rpg/2.6 apg ⋄ 16-5 record ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 12x All-NBA ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
Scottie Pippen
- 1178 GP: 18.9k Points ⋄ 7.5k Rebounds ⋄ 6k Assists ⋄ 2.3k Steals 6th All-Time ⋄ 125 Win Shares ⋄
- 20.2 ppg/6.5 rpg/5.7 apg/1.9 spg: 69-13 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄
- 7x All-NBA ⋄ 10x All-Defense ⋄ 6x NBA Champion ⋄
Kevin Garnett
- 1462 GP 6th All-Time: 26k Points ⋄ 14.6k Rebounds⋄ 5.4k Assists ⋄ 2k Blocks ⋄ 1.8k Steals ⋄ 191 Win Shares 9th All-Time ⋄
- 24.2 ppg/13.9 rpg/5.0 apg (!)/1.5 spg/2.2 bpg: MVP ⋄ 58-24 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 9x All-NBA ⋄ 12x All-Defense ⋄ 1x DPOY ⋄ 4x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Julius Erving - no ABA
- 836 GP: 18k Points ⋄ 5.6k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Steals ⋄ 1.3k Blocks ⋄ 106 Win Shares ⋄
- 24.6 ppg/8.0 rpg/4.4 apg/2.1 spg/1.8 bpg: 62-20 record ⋄ MVP ⋄ ECF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Dwyane Wade - Active
- 980 GP: 22k Points ⋄ 4.6k Rebounds ⋄ 5.4k Assists ⋄ 1.6k Steals ⋄ 118 Win Shares ⋄
- 27.2 ppg/5.7 rpg/6.7 apg/1.9 spg: 52-30 record ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 8x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
Steve Nash
- 1217 GP: 17.4k Points ⋄ 10k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 3.6k Rebounds ⋄ 130 Win Shares ⋄
- 18.8 ppg/10.5 apg/4.2 rpg/50-40-90 splits: 54-28 record ⋄ MVP ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 5x Assist Leader ⋄
David Robinson
- 987 GP: 20.8k Points ⋄ 10.5k Rebounds ⋄ 2.4k Assists ⋄ 3k Blocks 6th All-Time ⋄ 1.4k Steals ⋄ 179 Win Shares ⋄
- 27.6 ppg/10.8 rpg/2.9 apg/3.2 bpg/1.7spg: 62-20 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 8x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 1x Blocks Leader ⋄ 1x DPOY ⋄ ROY ⋄ 2x NBA Champion ⋄
Recap
Tier 1: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain
Tier 2: Shaquille O’ Neal, Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson
Tier 3: Kobe Bryant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, John Stockton, Kevin Garnett, Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Moses Malone, Julius Erving, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bob Pettit, David Robinson
Part 1: Already In Self explantory, players who have already put in strong enough careers to be listed among the top 25 ever while still in their relative prime.
Lebron James
- 1143 GP: 31k Points 7th All-Time ⋄ 8k Assists ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 1.9k Steals ⋄ 219.4 Win Shares 4th All-Time ⋄
- 26.8 ppg/8.0 rpg/7.3 apg/1.7 spg/0.9 bpg: 62-20 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 4x MVP ⋄ 14x All-NBA ⋄ 6x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Best Career Comps: Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Shaq (?)
Current Ranking: Borderline Tier 1/2
Projected Career: There’s been a ton of ink already spilled on Lebron’s GOAT candidacy and all-time significance, so won’t spend much time here. Two more seasons at roughly his current production and that’s a consensus top 3 all time career, where he’d only be 36 with a chance to get into truly unprecedented levels of sustained dominance.
Read Zach Kram’s piece if you want analysis here, it’s basically what I’m doing but more well defined and uniform in every way. Here’s roughly the range of numbers given there (Win Shares estimated):
40k Points All-Time Leader ⋄ 11k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 11k Rebounds ⋄ 260 Win Shares 2nd All-Time ⋄ Projected Ranking: Tier 1 Kevin Durant
- 771 GP: 20.9k Points ⋄ 5.5k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 130.2 Win Shares ⋄
- 32.0 ppg/7.4 rpg/5.5 apg/1.3 spg: 59-23 record ⋄ MVP ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 4x Scoring Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 2x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Best Career Comps: Dwanye Wade, Bob Pettit, Larry Bird
Current Ranking: Low Tier 3
Projected Career: There have been 29 individual seasons of 30/5/5 averages, move that to 30/7/5.5 and it’s cut to 11 seasons, include a 60%TS qualifier to the search and you’ll find two seasons, Michael Jordan’s ‘88-’89 season and Kevin Durant’s ‘13-’14 season, increase the parameters to Durant’s actual averages of 32.0ppg/7.4rpg/5.5apg/1.3spg on 50/39/87 splits or 63%TS/56%eFG and he stands alone. That is a Tier 1 level peak, one of the 20 or so best seasons ever (maybe that’ll be my next project), but his candidacy is going to have some holes. This year has really strengthened the idea that even if Durant is better that Curry is more important to the Warriors, Durant got that FMVP (two now) and was fantastic in that (those) series, but to date only one (two) title (s) total and only one Finals appearance as “the guy”. I think that matters to an extent, looking at positional rankings he’s chasing Bird, who got three titles and two FMVP, but was no question the guy on all three of those teams. Durant’s career is going to be longer, so he’ll pass Bird statistically at some point within the next three years probably, with the metrics are pretty neck and neck. Once he gets to 900-1100 GP, he’ll be near or at the top of Tier 3 and once he closes in on 1200 he’ll be fringe Tier 2, with Hakeem or Kobe, the real question is how many games he has left. Multiple serious injuries to this point in his career, and it’s easy to forget he’s a legit 7 footer who’s going to be 30 next season, and the durability concerns that generally come with that. CARMELO was pretty spot on with his value this year, overestimated his decline just a touch, and he’s expected to be in the same range next year. After that, his value is projected in the above average wing range, similar to Jaylen Brown, KCP, and Kyle Korver this year, for the following three years; finally, two seasons in the Jeff Green/Buddy Hield range. Assuming he sticks at the 65-70 game range, that could look something like: 70 games at 25.0/6.5/5.0/1.0/1.0, 200 games at 21.5/4.0/5.5/1.0/1.0, and 130 games at 18.5/4.0/4.5/1.0/1.0, and Win Shares wise those sections should respectively net about 10, 21, and 9. Adding that onto his current career, his final profile would be:
1171 GP: 29.5k Point 8th All-Time ⋄ 7.3k Rebounds ⋄ 5k Assists ⋄ 1.3k Blocks ⋄ 1.3k Steals ⋄ 170 Win Shares ⋄ If his defense actually picks up to peak OKC levels, the Warriors win 3-4 titles in a row, or he has one or two more 30 point seasons, his profile will end up a lot stronger than this, but based on this year and his projections I think it’s as likely his career gets short by injuries or he doesn’t even get 400 more games. There’s a lot of variance with Durant, his metrics have always been kinda weird and the deeper this Warriors run goes you’d think his regular season games will drop, ultimately this seems reasonable.
Projected Ranking: Upper Tier 3 - Borderline Tier 2/3 Chris Paul
- 892 GP: 16.7k Points ⋄ 8.7k Assists 9th All-Time ⋄ 4k Rebounds ⋄ 2k Steals ⋄ 164.8 Win Shares ⋄
- 19.1 ppg/10.2 apg/4.6 rpg/1.9 spg: 56-26 record ⋄
- 8x All-NBA ⋄ 9x All-Defense ⋄ 4x Assist Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄
Best Career Comps: Magic Johnson, Steve Nash, Hakeem Olajuwon
Current Ranking: Lower Tier 3
Projected Career: Currently 538’s projections have CP logging two more seasons of similar quality to this year’s effort, where he put up 18.6/7.9/5.4/1.7 in 58 games, then two seasons at roughly Rubio production, before transitioning into a full time role player. Some notable comps are late career Chauncey and Stockton, betting on at least 4 more quality 60 game campaigns appears to be safe though. The first two let’s say at 17/7/4/1.5 and the back two at 13/7/3/1, which adds 240 GP, 3.6k Points, 1.7k Assists, .8k Rebounds, and .3k Steals. For the first two seasons add on 18 Win Shares and for the back two add 8 Win Shares (CP got 10 this year, Rubio had 5 for reference).That puts a safe estimate for Paul’s final tally at:
1132 GP: 20.3k Points ⋄ 10.4k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 4.8k Rebounds ⋄ 2.3k Steals 5th All-Time ⋄ 190.8 Win Shares10th All-Time ⋄ Without getting into metrics and efficiency, and especially in a conversation generally very saturated with playoff accomplishments, it’s a bit complicated to establish Paul’s spot. Luckily I am using Win Shares and that stat displays a lot of what I’m talking about with CP3, specifically let’s compare him first to Wade, who holds an 100 game and 5000 point lead on Paul. Which hypothetically should give Wade a leg up in this metric, more game time and more pure production, but in actuality, Wade trails CP in this area by a margin of >50< Win Shares, or the equivalent of five ‘18 Chris Paul seasons (who lead the league in Win Shares/48), or two ‘72 Kareem seasons (the single season Win Share record); Pippen has 300 more games, more points, played for winninger teams, and is considered a better defender, but Paul has 25 more Win Shares (or two 2001 Allen Iverson seasons); Kobe has 300 more games and has doubled CP’s point total, yet only holds a 8 Win Shares advantage (that’s less than Paul had this year in a 58 game campaign); Nash has a 300 game edge, more Assists, and more Points, and is generally considered a better floor general, but even so trails CP by a staggering 40 Win Shares. Building on the abursdity of CP's Win Share collection, it’s not like Paul’s numbers are anything to look down on. There’s only 15 seasons on record with his career averages, of which he accounts for five, but it also doesn’t really seem acknowledged that he’s basically averaged 20/10 for a decade now. Honestly I kinda think it’s because he only averaged at least 20 for two of those seasons, and players aren’t really mentally benchmarked as elite scorers if they’re at 19.0ppg instead 21.5ppg. Regardless, Paul’s definitely up there already, honestly I’d have him tied with Wade in the 20s, and depending on his longevity going forward, he should pass Stockton. He won’t have the same longevity as Stockton, but the comparison between their peak seasons and longevity of peak is a joke, ultimately the 2nd PG All Time behind Magic is CP's for the taking. Game total and playoff success are working against him, and the clocks ticking, but I think he ends up passing Stockton and somewhere in the top 20. A consecutive decade with 19/10/4/2 on 48/38/88 as the premier defender at his position is just ludacris, his final act should add some much needed playoff success and resume padding.
Projected Ranking: High Tier 3 Part 2: All-Time Peak, Short on GP Title explains.
James Harden
- 687 GP: 15.8k Points ⋄ 4.1k Assists ⋄ 3.5k Rebounds ⋄ 1k Steals ⋄ 106.7 Win Shares ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 5x All-NBA ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄ 1x 6MOY ⋄
- 29.7 ppg/10.0 apg/6.6 rpg/1.6 spg: 120-46 record ⋄
Comparable Peaks: Larry Bird, Shaquille O' Neil + Steve Nash, Oscar Robertson
Projected Career: First things first, Harden’s individual peak season, either last year or this year depending on playoff performance, is Tier 2 level. 30 ppg and 10 apg on his efficiency is plain absurd, the only better perimeter scorer seasons are Jordan and Lebron. The main two things working against him at the moment is it taking him 3 years to reach high volume numbers and lack of playoff accolades, so even though his peak is already better than Kobe's, it would take a great deal to pass him everything else considered. Next thing to note is a bit of a quirk in Harden’s CARMELO projections, his top ten closest comps include prime Grant Hill, Deron Williams, and Magic Johnson, as well as ‘91 Jordan and ‘10 Wade. Grant Hill had a steep drop off due to injuries, Magic had a medical situation that cut his prime short, Williams just fell off, Jordan took two years off for baseball, and Wade was at the tail end of his prime. It seems like those specific comps curbed his projections, because considering his durability and non-athletic dependent skillset I wouldn’t expect that much of a drop in production for another 3ish years when he hits 31-32. With those caveats out of the way, and a note that he overperformed his projection this year, CARMELO gives him three more years at around a Paul George/Derozan/Beal level and the three after that in Teague range. Next three years assume he stays in the 75 GP a year range, and I’m going with a line of 26.5/7.5/4.5 which... is low looking at his past 3 years and a tad generous looking at the CARMELO projections, but uhh.. can’t please everyone. That adds 6k Points, 1.7k Assists, and 1k Rebounds to his total, with roughly 35 Win Shares. That takes him through his 31 year old season, and for the following three years I’m gonna be a bit more generous in relation to the CARMELO numbers, for years 32-34 I think 65 GP with 23.5/9/4 is well within reason. This gives him another 4.6k Points, 1.8k Assists, and .8k Rebounds, plus 25 Win Shares going into year 15, where he’d be at 1107 career games. He’ll probably play longer than that but projecting that far gets dicey so his final talley here is:
1107 GP: 26.4k Points ⋄ 7.6k Assists ⋄ 5.3k Rebounds ⋄ 156.7 Win Shares ⋄ That’s a stronger profile straight up than Wade, Erving, Pippen, and Nash, and very much comparable to Barkley. 3 MVP level seasons with around 8x All-NBA and 1000GP is something only a handful of perimeter players have accomplished.
Projected Ranking: Tier 3 Stephen Curry
- 14k Points ⋄ 4k Assists ⋄ 2.8k Rebounds ⋄ 1k Steals ⋄ 93.3 Win Shares ⋄
- 30.1 ppg/6.7 apg/5.4 rpg/2.1 spg/50-45-90 splits: 73-9 record ⋄ MVP first ever unanimous ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 5x All-NBA ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄
Comparable Peaks: Dwanye Wade, Steve Nash, Jerry West, Dirk Nowitizki
Projected Career: If Curry retired tomorrow he would go down as the greatest shooter to ever play the game and he already holds one of the best offensive seasons ever, putting up 30 a game on a ridiculous 67%TS/63%eFG (the only player with a season of that volume and efficiency) with an equally absurd 125 OffRating in 2700 minutes. Curry’s peak puts him in the Tier 1-2 conversation and in the top 5 point guard conversation, assuming he can start stacking games to bolster his resume. The main blemishes here are a good, but not great, first MVP season(24/8/4/2, 67 wins, title), no FMVP(he deserved Iguodala's), and not really breaking out till he was 24-25. He’s smack in the middle of his prime right now though, he could hypothetically double his game count depending on how he ages. There’s also at the very least, one more year of this Warriors run, but probably longer and while the Rockets are a very real threat, that team isn’t built for the long term. Point being, Curry could feasibly end up with 4-5+ titles, alongside 2 MVPs, a ton of wins, greatest shooter ever, and that’s looking like a resume that could start rivaling Magic. Bringing in the CARMELO, he’s projected to be pretty steady for the next six years; he underperformed this year because he only played 51 games, but is expected to stay at the same effectiveness next year, before marginal a drop, three years at that level, and another two after another small drop. It’s a close enough overall range I’m just going to combine all six of those seasons, 65 games a piece (he’s, somewhat surprisingly, only played less than 74 twice but playing full seasons as the Warriors age seems unlikely +leveraging in case of injuries) at 24.0/6.5/4.5/1.5. That point total may seem low, but that includes his age 34-35 seasons where you’d assume a dip in production of some kind; in terms of increasing Curry’s career stats, from this scenario he adds; 390 GP: 9.4k Points ⋄ 2.5k Assists ⋄ 1.8k Rebounds ⋄ .6k Steals and 55 Win Shares or so. Given that, we’re looking at a final tally of:
1,015 GP: 23.4k Points ⋄ 6.5k Assists ⋄ 4.6k Rebounds ⋄ 1.6k Steals ⋄ 143.3 Win Shares ⋄ A total like that with a peak as strong as his gets into Tier 2 range with enough wins and playoff success. I think his profile is a touch stronger than Durant given the two MVPs, 73 win season, and Championship prior to Durant joining. I’m not going to project titles or playoff success, but with his head start accolade wise and their success from here on out being tied, I give him a little bit stronger chance to end up Tier 2, especially if he ever nabs at least one FMVP.
Projected Ranking: Borderline Tier 2/3 Part 3: Toss Up A bit more vague, but I explain the reasoning on why they're not in the tier up in their projections.
Russell Westbrook
- 748 GP: 17k Points ⋄ 5k Rebounds ⋄ 6k Assists ⋄ 1.3k Steals ⋄ 90.1 Win Shares ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄
- 31.6 ppg/10.4 apg/10.7 rpg/1.6 spg: 47-35 record ⋄ MVP ⋄
Projected Career: Well, this is definitely an interesting one, back-to-back triple double seasons, an MVP, a few deep playoff runs with Durant, but about to hit 30 with the very legitimate possibility he doesn’t sniff the Finals again. Despite a few notable scoring seasons, he only actually has 3 seasons above 25 ppg and his career average is somehow only 23 ppg despite a
career usage of 32.7%. And yet, an MVP and 1000GP is close to automatic entry to this very definitive, scientific ranking; ultimately failing to pick up a title with Durant is probably going to hurt his resume a good bit when he’s lacking in so many other areas. Taking a step back from narrative and context, let’s see how his stats could measure out; CARMELO gives him two more elite seasons and then four really good seasons and Russ generally does play full seasons, so that could work in his favor. 150 games at 27.0ppg/8.5rpg/8.5apg/1.5spg with 18 Win Shares, and the four season period after that a very slight less game load where he’ll be ages 32-35, so 280 games at 24.0ppg/8.5apg/6.0rpg/1.5spg and 28 Win Shares. His new total given this is:
1,178 GP: 27.8k Points 9th All-Time ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 9.7k Assists 7th All-Time ⋄ 1.9k Steals ⋄ 136.1Win Shares ⋄ Everything said prior and acknowledging the holes in his game and legacy, that’s a damn impressive career profile. Top ten in scoring and assists, and he has a shot at steals too, basically the pure counting stats would have him in, but no 60 win or title seasons as The Guy is sorta damaging. “Best Player on a Bunch of Sub-50 Win Teams, Only 1 Finals Appearance with Prime Durant” isn’t a generous reading per say, but also wouldn't be particularly untrue to point out. There’s definitely a threshold where his numbers are so ridiculous he gets in though, and the MVP is a very strong accolade, so wait and see?
Projected Ranking: Fringe Tier 3 Anthony Davis
- 410 GP: 9.6k Points ⋄ 4.2k Rebounds ⋄ .7k Assists ⋄ 1k Blocks ⋄ .5k Steals ⋄ 62.5 Win Shares ⋄
- 28.1 ppg/11.1 rpg/2.3 apg/2.6 bpg/1.5 spg: 48-34 record ⋄
- 3x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ 3x Block Leader ⋄
Projected Career: Little fun fact about Anthony Davis, he is a full 25 years of age, and won’t turn 26 until -next- March. He led the league in PER at age 21 and should reasonably be in his prime for another seven years, even with some nagging injury concerns. Because of the day-to-day nature of following the league, it’s easy to forget perspective when looking at players, especially younger ones with prodigious talent. Anthony Davis averaged 28 and 12 with All-NBA defense when he was 23, and we’ve seen big men who didn’t fully blossom until they’re 28 or later. The sky is absolutely still the limit for AD basically, his metrics and the Pels defensive stats lag, suggesting that his team defense has room for improvement, he’s already added a 3pt shot this year, and now it looks like the Pels should be playoff competitors through Holiday and (possibly)Boogie’s primes with AD. CARMELO has Davis staying in the same range of production until he’s 30, but the model doesn’t go past there, I’m gonna give him to age 35 though with a guesstimate drop. This is projecting the farthest so even though the numbers will probably easily be in Tier 2 or 3, it’s not definitive. For these next six years, his production should be similar and should actually increase, but in the interest of being conservative here, 70 games a year at 27.0/11.5/2.0/2.0/1.0 with 11.5 Win Shares. Through his first six years he’s played 410 games, so it’s only a small uptick, but if he’s healthy from here on out that number should be higher too. At that point he’ll be 31 with five seasons till he’s 35, and a lot of great bigs still played full time into their late 30s, but given the modern NBA I’m going to drop him to 65 games a year for those years at 23.0/9.5/2.0/1.0 and 8.0 Win Shares. It is entirely reasonable to expect him to blow those numbers out of the water though, but even with that let’s take a look at his new profile, with an added; 745 GP: 18.8k Points ⋄ 7.9k Rebounds ⋄ 1.5k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Blocks ⋄ .7k Steals ⋄ 97.5 Win Shares. On top of his current numbers, that gives him a final line of:
1,155 GP: 28.4k Points9th All-Time ⋄ 12.1k Rebounds ⋄ 2.2k Assists ⋄ 2.5k Blocks
10th All-Time ⋄ 1.2k Steals ⋄ 160.0 Win Shares ⋄ Moral of the story being that if AD stays healthy and stops improving he could sleepwalk into top ten All-Time in points and blocks. He’s at a point where he legitimately could have two more leaps though, on top of the possibility of him having a crazy long career, ala Dirk/Kareem; as well as the fact that during his real prime (generally ages 28-31): Lebron will be on the wrong side of 36 and the Warriors will be broken up or see some age regress as Curry and Durant head towards 35, so there could be some legit playoff success. He could end up anywhere in the top 25, and I would bet on him making it into there in some fashion.
Projected Ranking: Assuming health, floor is Tier 3. Outside that, who knows? Part 4: Too Soon to Tell
This is seriously way-way-way too soon, however, there’s a few players who have historically impressive early careers and should be given a cursory glance.
Giannis Anteokounmpo Why He’s Notable: This should go without saying, but averaging 27/10/5/1.5/1.5 with 12 Win Shares at age 23 is extremely impressive. Giannis could’ve gotten a profile, AD only has one more actual season on him, but AD has been producing like a cornerstone for four years now and Giannis has only been at this level for just two seasons, including the most recent campaign. He’s the youngest player in the modern era to have at least 25/9/4 in a season, so this is another sky’s the limit player, however I would say Tier 1 is likely out of reach though. He’s made a major leap every year in the league and is about six years short of his prime at the moment, so even though his first two seasons could weigh down his eventual career profile, he could very easily catch up to a lot of Tier 3 guys who had injury periods or weren’t first options large parts of their career. Depending on who the Bucks bring in to coach, Giannis could have Tier 1 peak as soon as next year if the Bucks defensive numbers tick back up and their win total starts to match their talent.
Ben Simmons Why He’s Notable: Simmons statline this year was a startlingly impressive for a rookie,
81 GP- 15.8ppg/8.1rpg/8.2apg/1.7spg/0.9bpg/9.2 Win Shares, 52-30 record.
Well actually, the rookie qualifier isn’t even necessary to illustrate the rarity of his season, there have only ever been 16 seasons in the history of the NBA with a 15-8-8 line and of those 16 seasons, Simmons is not only the youngest but ranks second in DRPM and third in Defensive Win Shares. Include his 1.5 Steals a game and it’s an even more exclusive club with just seven seasons putting up that line. He is already 21 and the free throwing shooting is a concern, but even if he barely improved and averaged 18.5ppg/8.5apg/8.5rpg/1.5spg/1.0bpg/10 Win Shares as a top ten defender for the next 13-14 years, that’s an all time career. The fact that he’s already putting up All Time numbers bodes very well for the 76ers, his start was legitimately strong enough that Tier 2 is within the realm of possibility if he makes any major leap within the next 3-4 years.
Devin Booker Why He’s Notable: Booker is one of 9 players to ever average 24.5ppg by age 21, and that’s honestly the only noteworthy accomplishment he has, but points are pretty important so note this accomplishment I have. Issue projecting Booker is his playoff and team success in the next decade is an complete unknown and and he could reasonably hit 6,000 Points before he’s 23, a near lock (health presuming) for the All-Time Points leaderboard. which deserves a mention at the very least. For reference, Kobe’s first four seasons netted him 4,240 Points, Dirk’s left him with 5,383; and Malone and Jordan played their rookie seasons at age 22. That’s the 3rd, 6th, 2nd, and 4th All-Time scoring leaders respectively, and Booker is absolutely in range to have a huge head start on a point total if he’s a legit 25 a game scorer moving forward.
Karl Anthony Towns Why He’s Notable: KAT also falls in the prior mentioned group of sub-22 year olds with a 25 ppg season, doing so last year before the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. He has a couple of legs up on Booker when looking at their production to date: KAT has so far not missed a game in his career, his rookie season was a great deal more impressive, and his comical efficiency. He’s already sitting at 5,307 Points through his first three seasons, averaging 21.6 ppg at age 22 with these shooting percentages: 54/39/84 & eFG/TS of 58/62. Basically off to a strong enough start at a young enough age that the sky's the limit scoring wise, as well as nearly 12 boards a game for his first three seasons and a solid collection of metrics. It seems like his stock has taken a hit the past year, especially last few weeks, but all he’s shown so far in his career is machine-like levels of durability and production. His full potential could be held back by playing next to multiple high usage perimeter guys, though on the flip side maybe that will be offset by increased early playoff success.
That's That
From my research I'd say there's at least 5 of the 25 best players ever in the league now, playing at a high level, and possibly as many as 11. Safe bet seems like 8 seems, it's hard to imagine at least one of BookeRuss/KAT/Simmons as well as Davis and Giannis busting hard enough to knock them off the path they've set for themselves and once the Lebron era finishes up the standard will be raised a good amount.
submitted by Warning: A somewhat long read.
Link:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/perseverance-and-go-go-gadget-legs-the-rise-of-50m-full-back-wan-bissaka-87jtcl9vq Full text follows:
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When charting the dizzying ascent of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, there really is only one place to begin. The day that altered a young Crystal Palace winger’s career path is well chronicled but worth recounting given how transformational it has proved.
A Thursday morning first-team training session in late 2016 and Kevin Keen, the then first-team coach, calls for a few under-23 players to make up the numbers. With the under-23 right back injured, Wan-Bissaka gets the call. Not only is the 18-year-old asked to play out of position, but he is set with the unenviable task of marking perhaps the Premier League’s most devastating winger, Wilfried Zaha.
Time and again, Zaha runs at the callow, makeshift right back, to no avail. “I can remember Wilf [Zaha] getting really frustrated,” Keen recalls. “Like you see in a Premier League game when he gets kicked, and he has a moan and gets the hump. He wasn’t used to a young boy coming over in training and not being able to get by him.”
The following week, Keen asked for Wan-Bissaka again. Andros Townsend, this time, was shackled impressively. “I don’t know how he does it,” Zaha said. “You may go past him, but he always manages to get a last ditch tackle in.”
Two and a half years and only 42 Premier League appearances later, Wan-Bissaka is on the verge of a £50 million transfer to Manchester United, which will make the 21-year-old the most expensive defender in the club’s history. Subject to a medical, a five-year deal, which is worth about £80,000 a week to the player, is likely to be wrapped up by the weekend.
“In the time I’ve been in football,” Richard Shaw, the Palace under-23 manager, says, “I haven’t seen anyone go from learning a new position, to playing his first three games in the Premier League against Tottenham, Manchester United and Chelsea and coming through with flying colours, to playing his first full season, and being worth this amount of money. Sometimes it’s hard to get your head around.”
Wan-Bissaka grew up in New Addington, Croydon, a little over five miles from Selhurst Park. Like many of the talented young players who have emerged from south London in recent years, his skills were honed in cage matches with friends, or on Walton Green, the sloping grass park near his house, where he played with his older brother, Kevin, and children from his estate.
Aged six, Wan-Bissaka had joined Junior Elite, the grassroots youth club Kevin also played for. “He was a centre forward with us,” Colin Omogbehin, the club’s founder, says. “He had a lot of natural talent, he was top scorer every year. But having said that, he was always willing to work hard. And very humble. Quiet. Shy, almost. But he came alive on the football field, and took no prisoners.”
It was Omogbehin, who was a coach in Palace’s academy and now works for Fulham, who advised the Eagles to sign Wan-Bissaka, aged eleven. Doubts about his attitude and application surfaced on a number of occasions and at 14 it took an intervention from his father, Ambrose, to remind him of the need to avoid distractions and bad influences.
On a couple of occasions, Shaw recalls, Wan-Bissaka failed to show, or turned up late, for games or training. “He had a few issues,” Shaw says. “There were times where he was influenced by other guys. He was in a boisterous group. They weren’t shy, as you can imagine, coming from south London. And they were close friends. He went to school with them all. It was hard work. People said, ‘Maybe we need to move him on …’ But we persevered. I knew that one day things would click, and he’d get it. And by God, he got it.”
In 2016, Shaun Derry, the former Palace midfielder and then the manager of Cambridge United, piloted a scheme where Palace’s academy prospects were invited to train with the Sky Bet League Two club to experience the realities of life outside the Premier League, with a view to a possible loan move. Wan-Bissaka and Noor Husin, now at Notts County, were the first to do so.
“The idea was for them to see a League Two facility: the food, the gym, one training kit you have to take home and wash at night,” Derry, who also coached a 14-year-old Wan-Bissaka in Palace’s academy, says. “It was taking them out of the comfort zone of Premier League life. At that moment, Aaron wasn’t ready to leave London and come to Cambridge, where we were fighting for our lives.”
There were bumps on the road to becoming Europe’s most resolute defender, too. Shaw recalls the first time Wan-Bissaka played at right back for Palace’s under-23s. “It was a 2-2 draw against Charlton [Athletic],” Shaw says. “He struggled at times, positioning-wise. One of the goals was his fault because the ball got played inside him. But we just kept persevering with him.
“We knew he had those, what we call, ‘Go-go gadget legs’. When he had played as a winger he always tracked back and was very good defensively. The big thing for us was his defensive positioning. He’s got the ability going forward — people have not seen the best of him yet.
“But the main thing is — and I’ve heard people saying, ‘I knew Aaron was going to be a player since he was two years old, in nappies’, I don’t buy all that — Aaron has helped Aaron. Dave [Reddington, the Palace first-team coach] and I have helped him along the way. But he embraced it. If we said, ‘Aaron, we’re going outside [to do some extra work] at two o’clock’, he said ‘Yeah’. Didn’t even question it.
A month before his debut against Tottenham Hotspur in February 2018, thanks to a first-team injury crisis, Wan-Bissaka had spoken with Roy Hodgson, the Palace manager, about going on loan to a League Two club. Hodgson told Wan-Bissaka he was part of his plans but only 18 months on, he must now plan for life without him.
Shaw insists that Wan-Bissaka is equipped for a career at Old Trafford. “He’s a guy who just gets on with life,” he says. “After every game I text him to say, ‘Well done, keep working hard.’ He always says, ‘Yep, I will’. Whoever he’s playing for, I’ll say the same. That’s what got him here.
“If Aaron goes to Manchester United, a World Cup, anywhere, he won’t change.
“He’ll take everything in his stride.”
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Welcome to Manchester United, "Go-go gadget legs"!
submitted by The Barclays is back boys, which means the managerial merry go round is about to hit the accelerator and kick into overdrive. This cruel fairground ride is bound to claim a fair share of victims over the course of the season, but who will be first? Last year Frank de Boer took home the gold in a record smashing 4(!) games; surely nobody will leave their club as fast as the Dutchman, but here’s my personal take on how each manager may fair this season.
AFC Bournemouth – Eddie Howe
Bournemouth are weird aren’t they. They’ve become somewhat of a Premier League mainstay, whilst maintaining the feeling of being a Championship side. I like them, they’re cool. Another cool thing is the man at the helm ‘future England manager,’ Eddie Howe.
He’s done an insanely fantastic job in getting his side to this stage and is a club legend for sure, even if the club struggle, I can’t see Howe being sacked. Stranger things have happened in football, such as Robert Green going to Chelsea, but Howe staying put seems inevitable.
Sack Race odds: 20/1 (All odds from SkyBet)
Arsenal – Unai Emery
It still doesn’t quite feel real to talk about Arsenal sans Arsene Wenger; he’s been the gunners’ leader for the entire span of my interest in football, but all good things must come to an end, and good things can be birthed from such endings, so in comes the Europa League specialist, Unai Emery.
Will he be sacked first? Almost certainly not, in fact, Emery seems like he is poised for success with the London club, with a host of important new signings and a proven philosophy. However, I can’t help but get flashbacks to when David Moyes replaced Sir Alex Ferguson. The burden was too large, Moyes drank from the poison chalice of management, causing his tactical brain to explode, and he never truly recovered. Hopefully for Unai, this chalice is slightly less poisonous and he can work some magic when stepping into Wenger’s shoes.
Sack Race odds: 33/1
Brighton and Hove Albion – Chris Hughton
What a lovely man Hughton is, he’s worked harder than anyone to make it in the Premier League. It wasn’t meant to be at Newcastle or Norwich, but little Chris has found his true love at the Amex Stadium.
Brighton sailed to a highly successful maiden season in the Premier League, and a vast amount of that credit has to go to Hughton. He changed things up by adding the likes of Schelotto over club legend Bruno, allowed Pascal Groß to work his magic feet and played to the strengths of Glenn Murray, who ended up bagging 11 league goals. Second season syndrome looms in the air, but if Hughton keeps it fresh again his love affair on the south coast will continue to blossom.
Sack Race odds: 16/1
Burnley – Sean Dyche
If the 2018/2019 managerial sack race is won by Sean Dyche, I’ll eat a worm. Dyche is everything that makes Burnley tick, he and the club are basically those two old fellas you see in the pub every night drinking dark mild, it’s an unbreakable bond.
Dyche is well aware of the club’s strengths, weaknesses and how to squeeze the best out of every fixture. The only issue rearing its ugly head is that of overachievement and squad depth; Europa League qualification was something nobody could have predicted for the claret side and people surely can’t expect Dyche and company to repeat the feat this year, especially with the extra burden of having to get his paper thin squad through a highly populated fixture list.
Sack Race odds: 20/1
Cardiff City – Neil Warnock
Neil Warnock is somehow not the favourite to depart his side quickest this season. Warnock has forever been the Premier League bridesmaid, but never the bride, as whilst he has a very impressive Championship record, he’s never cut the mustard in the top division.
He sits in the void between Premier League and Championship alongside the likes of Lewis Grabban, Dwight Gayle and Cameron Jerome, in that they’re all too good for the Championship but simply are not built for the trial and tribulations of the Premier League. Sadly for Warnock, his success will again be his own downfall.
Sack Race odds: 8/1
Chelsea – Maurizio Sarri
Sarriball is an interesting entity in football. It’ll entertain, it’ll win hearts and minds, but as of yet, it has failed to win a top level trophy. Will his stylish brand win one this year? I think not.
Whilst his tactics are excellent and his style is easy on the eye, it takes time to implement such a system, especially in an entirely new league. Undoubtedly Sarri needs a sufficient tenure to implement his intelligent plan, so sacking him before even giving him a hope of getting everything in place would be pure madness, even from a notoriously non-reactionary, cool headed fellow such as Roman Abramovich.
Sack Race odds: 33/1
Crystal Palace – Roy Hodgson
Roy the boy rides again! At the tender age of 70 (the oldest in the league) Hodgson enters his first full season with Crystal Palace after working wonders there last season. With De Boer at the wheel the club were on a highway to hell (a.k.a the Championship) but Hodgson steered them to safety and got everyone at Crystals nightclub grooving again.
He’s been there and done it all before so when it’s all said and done I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roy standing tall once again. Who knows, if he has an incredible showing, maybe he could be England manager one day…
Sack Race odds: 20/1
Everton – Marco Silva
I’ll save you the classic Paul Merson jokes, but Mr Silva has proven quite popular in the top division hasn’t he. Silva laid his roots at Hull, then started turning up trees with Watford, before proving to be a thorn in his own side after getting his head turned by the Ev in the winter.
Everton finally got their man and should he be able to get them playing like Watford early last season, they’ll be off to a flyer. The question mark however, is on the defensive side. Silva knows how to get his creative players into the game but his teams are often leakier than the Titanic, which doesn’t bode well for England’s world cup hero Jordan Pickford.
Sack Race odds: 18/1
Fulham – Slavisa Jokanovic
Are you a football hipster? Do you like walking down the river side to your favourite cereal café? Do you love nothing more than your team’s home ground to be an old hunting lodge? Well Fulham is the team for you and Slavisa Jokanovic might just be your new best friend.
Jokanovic has hauled his team back to the big time by having each and every one of his players invest in his brand of attractive, attacking football. Now with the likes of Mitrovic, Seri, Schurrle, Sessegnon and Cairney at the manager’s disposal we could be looking at the breakout team of the season and a influx of new Fulham fans from across the globe.
Sack Race odds: 20/1
Huddersfield Town – David Wagner
I mentioned second season syndrome before with Brighton, but the eerie stench smells much greater in regards to Huddersfield. They almost burnt out last year and despite signing some decent players (Kongolo permanently, Durm, Sobhi etc.) they are once again, a firm favourite for the drop.
The question that is begged then is this, will a bad season see Wagner be sacked in a bid to change the fortunes of the club? I would say possibly yes. Whilst before I did speak of the love towards Dyche and Howe from their clubs, in this world of money and power there is little room for loyalty in football anymore, and Wagner is a man I fear for if things begin to go south.
Sack Race odds: 16/1
Leicester City – Claude Puel
Tensions got nasty between Puel and Leicester last season. There were warm beginnings due to the removal of Craig Shakespeare, but if there’s two things Leicester fans do not like it’s, 1.) winning just three games in fourteen to end the season, and 2.) playing a boring style of football.
He’s certainly one of the favourites to win the sack race, despite his side being expected to finish around the middle of the table, so I would be extremely fearful for his head if Leicester don’t kick off well. After all, this is the board that sacked Ranieri after he pulled off the impossible dream.
Sack Race odds: 7/1
Liverpool – Jurgen Klopp
Despite Klopp being at the helm of Liverpool for less than three years, it just feels right that he’s there. Like hand in glove, bacon and egg, Northern Rail and cancelling trains; they just fit together.
They’ve signed better than any of their Premier League rivals and finally have the squad depth to mount a challenge on all fronts. Anything less than top 4 (maybe even 3) and a decent run in the Champion’s League would be a disappointment, but it seems written in the stars that Klopp will once again deliver what is expected from the Kop faithful.
Sack Race odds: 80/1
Manchester City – Pep Guardiola
City fans must be glad all over that they have Pep at the helm, at the City board surely feel the same. The blue half of Manchester exploded into life last season and performed to a level which many would say was the greatest showing in Premier League history.
Pep has the highest odds on winning the sack race, and rightly so, as this season they look to have even more firepower with Mahrez arriving, and further stability with Foden and Laporte vying for first team action. They’ll probably win the league again, just hopefully not at such a canter to make things interesting. For now though, his bald-fraudometer reading remains at zero.
Sack Race odds: 100/1
Manchester United – Jose Mourinho
From the bookies’ least fancied, to their most fancied; Jose Mourinho is on the brink of destruction at Manchester United it would seem. Mourinho’s that fella that you have in your five-a-side team who does some daft skill in his own half, loses it, you concede, but he never accepts that he’s in the wrong it up, and instead throws a paddy and blames everyone else.
He’s already fallen out with a plethora of people at Old Trafford including: Luke Shaw, Ed Woodward and even his own fans’ home support. Plus, with his reign at Chelsea ending in tears following a conspiracy and tirade against Eva Carneiro, we can expect some fireworks to fly during Mourinho press conferences this year, and further rifts between the man, the fans and the board will quite likely lead to Mourinho leaving the club before too long.
Sack Race odds: 5/1
Newcastle United – Rafa Benitez
Poor old Rafa. He’s always a gentleman and shouldn’t have to put up with the farcical nonsense that is Mike Ashley. He worked wonders keeping his paper thin side in the Premier League last season and he should have been rewarded with some impressive new recruits. Ashley being Ashley though (Newcastle haven’t broken their transfer record since signing Michael Owen in 2005) means that instead of quality new faces Benitez has been forced to search the bargain bins at Poundland yet again.
For all of the above, I personally believe Rafa will be the manager to leave his club first. He won’t be sacked, surely Mike Ashley isn’t that stupid, instead Rafa may well step down. The man is simply too wonderful a coach to put up with the endless idiocy he’s been served up in the North East, and instead he should seek healthier options elsewhere.
Sack Race odds: 8/1
Southampton – Mark Hughes
I fully ate my words last season, when Hughes took over at Southampton I thought they were doomed, but he actually did a decent job and kept them in the league thanks to a few tidy results. I can’t help but not like Hughes though, maybe it’s his arrogant personality, maybe it’s that he cares way too much about handshakes, who knows.
The Welshman’s issue this time round is the lack of new arrivals and the constant question of, where will the goals come from in this Southampton team? Will Charlie Austin be able to stay fit enough to kick it in the net? Wil the loan of Danny Ings be a success? Will Nathan Redmond finally be able to understand that you can run, kick and breathe all at once? Find out on this year’s edition of the Prem.
Sack Race odds: 12/1
Tottenham Hotspur – Mauricio Pochettino
First things first, Daniel Levy got a taste of his own medicine and completely fluffed this transfer window. After years of squeezing every penny out of teams to get a stellar deal, here’s a comprehensive list of Spurs’ 2018 summer signings: nobody.
Pochettino would be safe at Spurs regardless of league position, but this shambolic transfer window means that he will get even more leeway in what is expected to be a disappointing league season following years of success. Plus, with Real Madrid plucking Lopetegui over Pochettino recently too, I don’t see any reason why Poch would depart the new White Hart Lane in the near future.
Sack Race odds: 50/1
Watford – Javi Gracia
I actually had to Google ‘who is the Watford manager?’ only to be greeted with the completely forgettable answer of Javi Gracia. Outside of a 4-1 win against Chelsea, his run at the helm of the Hornets has had very little sting behind it, which likely will continue through 2018/2019.
Without a doubt Gracia will be relying on his defence in order to keep his team up, and salvage his own job. Last season their top scorer was Abdoulaye Doucouré (who I cannot believe wasn’t snapped up) with 7 goals, and their blunted strikeforce consists of a fat guy on £100,000 per week (Deeney), a fat guy with a poor injury history (Okaka) and a skinny guy who’s Premier League goal ratio is 1 in every 4.5 games (Gray).
Sack Race odds: 8/1
West Ham – Manuel Pellegrini
West Ham live in a constant state of insanity. Their board have consistently lied to the fans about plans, both on the pitch and in terms of the stadium change, leaving many long-time Hammers fans disgruntled with their beloved team.
Stability may have arrived in the backroom however, as experienced head Manuel Pellegrini, who must have rocks in his head to take this role, takes to the hot seat at the London Stadium. Pairing such a successful manager with a plethora of exciting signings: Wilshire, Yarmolenko, Anderson, Sanchez and Perez amongst others, means that West Ham should be able to secure an impressive finish this time round.
Sack Race odds: 18/1
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Nuno Espírito Santo
Rounding off our band of merry men we have another gentleman who may become a victim of his own success. Wolves are back in the big time after six years of absence, and they’ve gone super-size on their transfer dealings, assembling arguably the most luscious squad a promoted side has ever forged.
I question whether Nuno as the managerial nous required to cut it in the top division, and considering the fact that Wolves have gone all in this summer, they could end up searching for a more prestigious manager if a fast start escapes them. Fun fact though, Nuno was born in São Tomé and Príncipe, which is cool.
Sack Race odds: 18/1
There you have it then folks, the Premier League sack (or leave you club because of gross mismanagement) is on. My front runners have to be Warnock, Mourinho and Benitez, but I’d love to here who’s job you are fearful for this time round.
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