Well, I guess that's it, everyone. Luffy's been captured, and as the old adage goes, "Cut off the head and the body will die." With Luffy trapped behind bars, who's going to lead the army against Kaidou to success? Who will fight Kaidou? Who will rally the forces?
Who will Morgans hype up as the 5th Emperor? Hmm? What's this?
Ahem Dear audience, I've been handed a list that I'm informed I must read aloud to you all.
It is titled "Déjà vu - Why putting Luffy in prison is about as effective as using Splash with a Magikarp."
Buggy's Prison in Orange Town,
The Execution Stand at Loguetown,
Crocodile's Prison under Rainbase Casino in Alabasta,
The Kuja's Prison in Amazon Lily,
Impel Down,
Mont-D'or's Book Prison, and that brings us to where we are in Wano.
Ahem Dear audience, I've been informed that there is no need to fear for Luffy's safety and you all should, while waiting for his rescue, place more bets here at B&B
TM Inc. because we have a lovely celebration starting in just a minute!
Links
Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, and
everybody in between, welcome to...
The 50th Edition Spectacular of Bets and Bravery!
Welcome one, welcome all, we're glad to have you here for this monumental occasion here at Bets and Bravery! Before I go off on my usual tirade, I feel it's only necessary to dive into the history of B&B when we're at such an important milestone in B&B's life
which I'll inevitably repeat as we reach the 100th edition, the 150th, the 200th... So, to everyone out there, sit back, take some notes, and relive your high school history class for a brief moment more as we take a look back on what's brought us all here today!
Back in the summer of 2013,
u/milkyjoe241 created a thread that came to be known under the name of
Bets and Wagers where users on this sub would bet with fake currency on what would happen in upcoming chapters of the One Piece story. While the game didn't stick around too long, the seeds were planted, and three years later by fall 2016, those seeds had sprouted.
A user by the name
u/ZeppelinCaptain, fond of milkyjoe241's short-lived series decided he would revive the series under the name you all know and love today:
Bets and Bravery! However, just like milkyjoe before him, ZeppelinCaptain soon became too wrapped up in other endeavors of his and had to leave the project. However, an ambitious and young
not so young anymore lad by the name of
u/euphon22 took up the mantle and saved the show from another swift demise.
Euphon22 premiered his
Bets and Bravery on Halloween of 2016
I promise the show isn't cursed just because all the previous hosts have mysteriously disappeared, leaving the reins in another young hopeful's hands only for them to suffer the same fate in due time. Oh. Oh, God. Somebody, anybody, help! to roaring success, where he stayed showrunner for nearly two years. While he attempted to keep the show going consistently, his own life also became more busy with time and he had to take breaks from his work, and like milkyjoe and Zeppelin before him, eventually could no longer run the show consistently.
I was approached by euphon with the opportunity to keep the show alive as its host. While 15 minutes of pacing may be excessive in retrospect, this decision was a big one for me. As an avid veteran player, I wanted to see the game continue to prosper and grow, but didn't know if I could handle the job. To make a long story short, I took the job. Euphon took me under his wing and taught me everything he knew, and I've been running this show since July of this year.
Now we all stand here, at the 50th Edition of Bets and Bravery, as one big gambling-addicted family! I'm truly thankful to everyone, whether you're new to this game, whether you've been a veteran for years, or if you're somewhere in the middle! Truly, thank you all; I couldn't keep running this show without your support!
My Usual Shtick
Welcome one, welcome all, we're glad to have you! If you're new to Bets and Bravery, B&B is a weekly thread on this subreddit where users bet with fake currency, the Beli from in-universe, on what they think will happen in each week's chapter in a series of bets made by yours truly. I keep track of everyone's money in a giant Google Sheet, which is available in the links above. So, if you're new,
you are not allowed to leave until Simon Says so enjoy your time! But, if you're a regular on this thread, we're glad to see you back!
We've closed the curtain on the first act of the Wano Arc on a depressing yet hopeful note. Luffy may be imprisoned, but he's in there with another strong pirate with a grudge on Kaidou, Kid! Tama may be injured, but Inuarashi is taking her to help! Law may not be injured, but neither are the Strawhats at Oden's Castle!
wait, is that a problem? We may not know what will happen in the next act of Wano, but we can sure as hell bet on it! So, let's get right into...
The Bets of the Week
Wowee, would you look at that! What is this pile of exactly 500,000 Beli doing right out in the open? Yes, dear audience, you heard that right. For this edition only,
you, yes you, get 500,000 Beli for
free! We're bringing out all the big guns this week, so you better respond appropriately! Now, here's your first bet tonight...
Bet 230
Obviously, there was one portion of the chapter that will have the most effect on the future of this arc. No, I'm not talking about Kin'emon's eventual reunion with O-Tsuru. I'm talking about Luffy
yet again ending up in prison (and we all know how well prison hinders Luffy's journey). However, while Luffy ending up in prison is all the rave this week, let's talk about who else is in prison
with Luffy.
According to
u/OharaLibrarianArtur, the silhouette we saw in Kaidou's prison who attacked the guards with the fish bones was not Captain Kid, and that this person was held in an entirely different section of the prison from Luffy and Kid. The question becomes, just who is this man and why does he warrant his own solitary confinement while Luffy sits next to Kid? Well, that's your question! Who is this mysterious
silhouette in Kaidou's jail?
- A. Denjiro, Kawamatsu, or the missing hat-wearing retainer from Kin'emon's Wano flashback! Odds 1:2
- B. The "lurking legend" Oda teased! Odds 1:3
- C. Lady Toki or Kozuki Hiyori!
bless their manners Odds 1:5
- D. Another member of the Strawhat Alliance! Odds 1:5
- E. Some character not mentioned above! Odds 1:2
Bet 231
Back to prison, there's another important piece of the puzzle we need to discuss: Kid. Last time we saw Kid, it was all the way back before Whole Cake Island, eons ago, when he was captured and thrown in a different prison than he's in now. This all happened after he, Hawkins, and Apoo were all in the wrong place at the wrong time when Kaidou, attempting to kill himself, happened to fall from a sky island onto the meeting place of the supernovas. After a brief scuffle, Hawkins pledged allegiance, Apoo's status is unknown, and Kid was thrown in jail for being disobedient.
Now, he's not the only supernova who has gone up against Kaidou, as Luffy has ended up in the same predicament he has. Not only that, but they both have Conqueror's Haki (and of course Oda just drops that information in casual dialogue like it's nothing)! So, with the both of them having fought against and lost to Kaidou, both conquerors, and both wanting to defeat a Yonkou, it's obvious that they'd team up against Kaidou. Or, is it obvious? Dear audience, will Kid team up with Luffy to defeat Kaidou?
- A. Yes! Odds 1:2
- B. He will team up to escape prison, but will then leave/become a neutral party! Odds 1:3
- C. He will not team up with Luffy at all! Odds 1:4
- D. He will initially remain neutral, but will team up as the battle shifts in Luffy's favor! Odds 1:2
Bet 232
Let me reiterate that old adage: "Cut off the head and the body will die." With Luffy out of commission, odds do not favor the Strawhat Alliance right now at all. Even if Ashura Douji, Denjiro, and Kawamatsu are all recruited, without Luffy the plan stands no chance of success. He's a key aspect, and you think he'd be needed back on the battlefield as soon as possible, right?
Perhaps. However, another problem would then arise. If Luffy, let alone Luffy, Kid, and the other prisoner, breaks out of prison, Kaidou will send an army or even chase them down himself to put an end to them. It's a dilemma for sure. If Luffy remains in prison, he won't know the plan and won't have time to train for his fight in the upcoming battle. If Luffy escapes prison, he'll be a wanted man even more so and the plan will be thrown into even more chaos.
This question isn't about if Luffy will escape, he will eventually one way or another, but it is about
when this attempted prison break will go down. Will the Strawhat Alliance immediately rush to break Luffy out of prison?
- A. They will immediately rush to help, and the prison break will be successful! Odds 1:2
- B. They will immediately rush to help, but the prison break will be unsuccessful! Odds 1:4
- C. They will bide time and later attempt a prison rescue! Odds 1:3
- D. Luffy will break out on his own time without the Alliance's help! Odds 1:3
Bet 233
This bet is where you can bet how many pages Chapter 921 will feature!
Note: Shounen Jump covers, color spreads, or fan art pages from either Jaimini's Box or Mangastream are not counted here. Double page spreads are counted as two separate pages. Cover story serials or fan requests are counted as a page.
- A. 15 or less pages! Odds 1:3
- B. 16 pages! Odds 1:2
- C. 17 pages! Odds 1:2
- D. 18 pages! Odds 1:3
- E. 19 pages! Odds 1:3
- F. 20 or more pages! Odds 1:4
Bet 234
Our final bet this week is about the main focus of this week's chapter! The chapter may cover multiple storylines, in which case, the correct answer will be whichever storyline the chapter gave the most attention to in terms of pages or panels, should it get that close!
- A. Luffy's stay in prison! Odds 1:2
- B. The Strawhat Alliance at Oden's Castle! Odds 1:3
- C. The closing of the first act of Wano was a sign, we're going back to the Reverie! Odds 1:4
- D. Other storylines, such as Kin'emon and Ashura Douji, the Flower Capital Strawhats, Tama, or something outside of Wano! Odds 1:5
Weekly Mini-Game
Continuing our 50th Edition Spectacular, we're also spicing up this week's Mini-Game! We're increasing the prize amount, but that means we also need to make this WMG harder to reflect that larger possible reward. Dear audience, I want you to guess how many panels this chapter will have!
- Criteria for WMG: It's a panel. What else would the criteria be? Are you stupid or something?
Note: If there is a cover story serial or fan requested cover this week, it will count as a panel toward the total. A panel has to be completely separate from other panels to count toward the total.
Guess 100% correctly on this, and you'll receive a whopping 5,000,000 Beli! If nobody guesses correctly, the closest answer receives 750,000 Beli! If multiple people guess correctly or are evenly close to the correct answer, the bounty is evenly split among them to the nearest 1,000 Beli!
End of This Week's Bets
And with that, we've made it through not just another exciting week of Bets and Bravery, but the 50th Edition Spectacular! I hope you all enjoyed what we had this week, as I enjoyed making B&B for you! Now, please listen to the following tutorial:
Here's an example of a good comment:
So that's him... The man who went against u/MADKITTIEZ... and who went on a massive betting spree, destroying the leaderboard in the process...!!
That tiny kid!? I thought he'd at least be as big as an all-star with all those winnings...
50,000 on 230B!
500,000 on 231D!
50,000 on 232C!
5,000,000 on 233C!
50,000 on 234C!
You'll pay for this... u/MADKITTIEZ...!!!
Bets and Bravery - First Act FIN
Notes and Reminders
- Are you new to Bets and Bravery? If so, welcome, we're always glad to see newcomers! As a first login bonus, you'll get to start with 1,000,000 Beli to bet with however you want!
- Are all your bets ending up missing the mark? Have your bets and beli ended up frozen and left you penniless? It's ok, that was just the first act, look forward to the second act. To get you back on your feet, you'll get 10,000 Beli as a weekly login bonus to keep you in the game playing! And, for this 50th Edition Spectacular
take a shot for every time I've said that this post only, you'll get a whopping 500,000 Beli as a bonus! Get out there and knock 'em dead, kid!
- Please bet in values starting with 5 for this edition!
- Please bet on only one outcome (A, B, C, etc.) per bet (170, 171, 172, etc.)!
- Place all bets before spoilers drop for the chapter, cheating is a big no-no!
- Have any questions, comments, concerns, or ideas for future bets? Send me a message and I'll get right back to you!
Thanks for Participating!
Thanks to everyone out there who dropped by to read this thread, whether all the way through, just skimming, or just dropping by to see what this thread was. I'm truly grateful you all come by and support my work here as much as you do, so thank you. I hope I can keep living up to your expectations as host!
I wish you all good luck on this week's bets, and I will see you all back later this week after the chapter drops and the results thread is out for you all to see how you did! Until next time!
-MADKITTIEZ
submitted by Hello everyone.
I follow this subreddit for such a long time, and today is the day I decided to post my gambling problem here, so I can tell other people the problem I have. (In real life no one knows)
So, from the beginning I'm 23, and I work for 1 year now, the problem with gambling started in high school, at 18-19 yo. I started with sports betting, after that slots, roulette. I think I tried every possible game that involve gambling. In my final year at high school I was the one who collected the money from my colleagues for our photo albumes and our graduation party. I started with a small amount of money, like 10-20 Euros, after my first loss, I took more money from the money I collected from them and in 2 weeks, all the money were gone. It was about 1500 Euros. I had no ideea what to do then, my only option at that moment was to borrow money from my "friends". (I'll explain the quotes later) They borrowed me like 500 Euros, which i lost all on some football bets. 2000 Euros down and 1 week before the day when I need to pay the photo albums and the graduation party.
I decided to tell my parents about the situation. They was so upset and dissapointed about me I felt so so miserable. I promised them I will never ever step in a casino anymore. It took me like 6 months until I did it again.
I was at college and my mother gave me money for my instalemnt for college. (like 300euros) When I had that money in my hand my only thought was to play some in casino. I ended up losing all.
After that I started work for one of my friends, I worked 6 hours a day, 5 days a week for 20 euros a day, 100 euros a week. You think that would make me appreciate the money and stop gambling? That was my thought too. After I paid the college (300 euros) I went every week after paycheck at the casino and lose it all.
Now, I'm 23, I work in a company and I lead 3 teams involving 25 peoples in marketing domain and I earn 750 euros montly. You would say that my life will be brighter? That was my thought too, until I found out how easy is to take a loan / credit from the bank. I started the year in January with 1500 euros money earned from August when I got hired. In March I got my first loan, 2000 Euros, I lost all the money earned + the loan in 2 weeks max, in April I took one more loan for 4000 Euros, total 6000 Euros. I lost it all in April. And my final loan I took it 3 weeks ago, 2000 more Euros, a total of 8000 Euros for 5 years, with a monthly instaltment of 200 Euros. Simple math: 200 euros x 60 monts = 12.000 Euros lost and 5 years of work to pay my gambling addiction.
Now in the end I want to share my biggest fear, that my family or girlfriend would find out about the loan, they know I do sport betting for fun, and when I win some I buy cool stuff for me or my girlfriend, but don't know about casinos, slots and roulette.
And about the quotes from "friends" who helped me, in the last month I decided they can't be called friends, they were only gambling mates, with whom I lost a lot of money.
So, here is a new journey, I hope it's the last one. (I said a thousand times "last bet" / "last day, I swear")
I can say I feel good in these 7 days of no gambling, but today the thought about the loan for 5 YEARS paying 12.000 Euros destroyed me and I took a day off the office just to stay at home and think about it all day.
Thanks for the chance of sharing my gambling problem with you guys, and sorry for my English mistakes.
submitted by So here's the math. It's probably wrong in some places, especially when I start talking about probability, please forgive (or better yet, correct) me.
If you purchase the $99.99 bundle, you'll get 18000 total Lapis, at the cost of 1/2 cent per lapis ($0.005).
This is a better deal than the $0.99 bundle, which is 120 lapis and thus $0.00825 per lapis.
By raw value then, the $100 bundle is the best option if you're going to whale -- not surprising.
However, for those of us who are less whale and more sea-lion -- i.e., they don't mind spending money but won't pay the server bills ourselves -- the math gets a bit trickier.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zCBuia1tO0VAAzluLPEWhEjQp715Nk4Qaea1zrmDLvI/edit?usp=sharing Basically, all the rolls cost about the same, unless you take the leftovers into consideration. For a 11x roll, no matter what path you take, you're spending around $35-40 total. Even the $100 bundle is only a $1.60 discount when you consider the cost per roll -- Three rolls for $99 so roughly $33 a roll.
The difference becomes the leftover lapis. $100 will get you your 3 rolls at $33.33 a roll, but you'll walk away with $16.67 worth of leftover lapis -- 3000.
So if you're aiming just for a single roll, your best bet is goign to be to buy the $6.99 bundle 5 times. This will give you exactly 5000 lapis with 0 waste, and actually has the lowest cost per roll pre-$99 bundle at $35.
So how does this factor into the Lightning Equation?
By our math, it's a 1% chance of getting a 5 star, and then it's a 30% chance of being an on banner unit, of which there's a 33% chance of it being lightning.
Ergo, for every roll on the banner, there's a 0.00099 chance (0.099% =~ 0.10%) of it being Lightning.
Some quick napkin probability (please forgive any errors, it's been too long) suggests that it's roughly a 1.08% chance of Lightning for each time you roll 11x. According to the Geometric Distribution, that means
roughly 91.28 11x rolls for a Lightning to show up. Or roughly $3,190.33 USD. Again, my math could be wrong, please jump in if it is.
Now speaking as a former Casino employee, the Gatcha system is... really brilliant. And shady. No dobut the Gatcha is regulated just the same for the Global Market as it is in Japan -- if nothing else, it's just easier to use the exact same code.
When I hear about Japanese players spending $300+ USD on a single banner and not getting anything, I look back and realize the slot machines I used to repair were chump change compared to mobile gaming. No wonder every gaming company in Japan is losing out to mobile games -- they've basically found a way to gamble for nonexistent goods. Every single aspect of the gatchas -- the delay, the music, the colors, all of them are textbook social engineering straight out of a casino in order to get you addicted to it.
However, it's important to take into consideration the Monte Carlo fallacy. Unless something has changed or something odd is going on in the calculations, each roll of the 11x has the exact same odds as every other roll. (Unless they feel market pressure they won't change this.)
That means that Lightning is effectively impossible to get unless they change the odds significantly. You basically have a 1% chance per 11x roll to see her -- and it costs $35 per roll. My suggestion -- set a limit as to how much you'll be willing to spend per month, or per gatcha, and stick to it. Back when Brave Frontier was out I was breaking that rule by spending real money on each gatcha, and it added up quick -- and got me nothing in the end.
I'm spending whatever lapis I have saved up and $35... maybe $70 on this banner. No more, no less.
submitted by The U.S. National Gambling Impact Study Commission has found that people who live within 80 km of a casino are twice as likely to develop an addiction. Some countries have taken measures to avoid ... Montecryptos Casino draws inspiration from the evergreen classic novel and film “The Count of Monte Cristo.” The website of the casino is delightfully fashioned after a brave and young sailor who graces the landing page and greets everyone into his world of games and online gambling adventures. Gaming room of Casino de Monte-Carlo. Word of the Monte Carlo Casino spread across Europe and it quickly gained popularity. In 1873, most of the European gambling houses were closed as part of governments’ policy to prevent people from losing their fortunes and put a halt to their addiction. That’s when the golden days of the Monte Carlo Casino began. Monaco laws forbid locals from setting foot inside the luxurious casinos in the microstate such as Casino de Monte Carlo and Monte Carlo Bay Casino although the popular gambling destinations of Monaco attract thousands of tourists every year. Monaco is the state of luxury, elegance, extravagance, fun and of course gambling. Given that casino operators and slot-machine manufacturers are adamant that the blame for gambling addiction resides with the individual, it is not surprising that research by the industry-funded ... The only problem this poses is gambling addictions, and casino gambling is often a fine line between thrill and addiction. Read on for an exploration into this. Thrill: Tactically securing a huge ... At the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, a roulette streak occurred in which the ball landed on black 26 consecutive turns, causing an incredible amount of attention at the casino. As the streak continued, bettors made increasingly high wagers on red, thinking the streak could not continue and the ball was “due” to land on red. “It just Gambling is full of facts, myths, mysteries, famous persona and has an incredibly long rich and interesting history. Casino - a word which is originated from the Italian "casa," the meaning of which is 'small villa' or 'summerhouse' – anyway, the place for pleasure and entertainment, has much to say. Gambling addiction is one issue you may have to deal with while working a casino job. Site contains detailed information on working and playing at casinos and internet casinos in the United States and abroad.