Week 9 TNF Recap: Pretty standard game with the 49ers missing half their team. GB won easily and our lone wager is still alive for the Sunday games. Lets see what opportunities we have available to us this week! 🙂
Singles (u) Parlays (u) Teasers (Still live) BBDLS (u)
SUNDAY GAMES
Seattle/Buffalo: Alrighty! First match up of the day and its my Super bowl predicted team. A West coast team traveling east for a 1pm game. Usually a look at the East coast team. However Seattle and Wilson are 18-6 in the last 24 1pm East coast starts, winning their last 10 in a row! The Seahawks have covered five of their last seven games and have won 10 of their last 12 games as a road favorite. In player news, "
All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams, Seattle's biggest offseason acquisition, is expected to return Sunday after missing four games with a groin injury. Two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap is set to make his Seahawks debut after being acquired in a trade last week with Cincinnati and defensive tackle Damon "Snacks" Harrison, another former Pro Bowler, is close to being in game shape after being signed as a free agent. On the other side, Buffalo is coming off a narrow divisional win vs New England and has only covered once in their last 5 games. "
Bills center Mitch Morse was knocked out on the third play against the Patriots and remains in the concussion protocol. Receiver John Brown (knee), defensive end Jerry Hughes (foot) and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) have also missed practice time this week."
The Bills and Allen started the year hot with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio in the first 4 game. Only to throw a 4/4 ratio in the last 4 games.
There is great weather for a northeast game in November and with all the news and trends it would look like an easy spot to take SEA and the Over. The scary thing about committing to that is the MAJORITY of bets on this game are on SEA and the over...But, every time the line hits 3, it wont cross to 3.5 and most often doesnt stay at 3 for long. Also, the total opened at 55.5 but has RLM to as low as 54 in some books! The only other reason I can see for SEA possibly playing a flat game is that they just played 2 divisional games and after this have two more (one being the rematch of their only loss so far) With this game being non-conference AND SEA having it squeezed in between 4 divisional games, maybe I could see them spending more effort on the divisional games?
Either way, my algo has this as 27 24 SEA with the most favorable prop to target as Cole Beasley (SEA D is weak, but its WEAKEST point is vs slot receivers and WTF are these lines, 4.5 REC and 50 yards? Hes averaging 5 Rec and 60+ yards per game...)
DenveAtlanta: Next up we have a rather pointless game (for playoff implications). ATL is off a win on TNF and some extra rest. Denver is coming of a huge 2nd half comeback with a last second score to win a divisional home game as a dog. The Broncos are also 3-1 in their last 4 games, with their only loss to KC. (2-1 of those games came on the road). Atlanta hasn't won a game at home yet this year. My algo has this as a 24-26 ATL. I believe this game has potential to be one by BOTH teams. So, with the clearly better defense and catching more than 4, I think it's a good spot for DEN. Possibly a sprinkle game too! 😉
Chicago/Tennessee: This is the match-up of the pretenders. Two teams that the model is not sure if they are contenders or pretenders. CHI put in Foles when they were 3-0. Now they are 5-2. Their offense has got to find some continuity. Only averaging 20ppg it might be able to find some life vs a TEN defense that is quite suspect. They have made some changes recently and will be starting new pieces. Could be the perfect opportunity for Foles to get some stats on the sheet because TEN d-line has been very weak, rarely sacking opposing QBs this year. They will need every bit of Foles because the Bears run offense has been horrrrrible this year. Let's put it this way, TEN's Derrick Henry outrushes the Bears by himself on a per-game basis.
My algo has this as TEN -1 with a total of 50. Looks like I'll be leaning CHI on the bounce back.
Side note: I've said it before, ill mention it again. There's almost always an upset and it usually comes from the games that are 6/6.5 spread. Books seem to squeeze this in every week somehow to take care of people's teasers. This weeks candidates CHI, JAX, NYJ Something interesting to note, majority of bets are on TEN yet the line hasn't moved from 6.5 to 7. . .
Detroit at Minnesota: Ehhhh, a very weird one. It has been off the board most of the week because we are not sure if Stafford is going to play. He is under a Covid protocal for close contact. He will be tested daily up until Sunday morning. If he is negative he will most likely play, if he tests positive he will obviously be out.
Outside of the Stafford storyline we have some revenge game stuff. Everson Griffen and AP returning to MIN, and I think MIN has some DET players now.
My algo has this as a Pickem being very game script dependent. I likes whoever gets a lead as it favors their defense to go for more on the pass rush.
I would say that Stafford being in will be the most important news to follow. If he is out I may look for a small teaser on MIN and the Under as I expect them to lean on Cook again. However, if Stafford plays I think this is a great spot to take the Lions and even a sprinkle on the money line.
Again, if Stafford is in I would look to some Lions props as MIN D is still a poopshow. With Galloday out, Look for Hall and Hockenson to get the extra targets. Also, if Stafford plays the Lion's have been coming out FIRE in the first quarter.
Check in the comments Sunday before game time to see who I took based upon the Stafford news.
Baltimore at Indianapolis: Back to back weeks Baltimore in a big AFC matchup. Last week was frustrating not only for us (BAL losing hurt) it was probably extremely frustrating for BAL. They outgained the Steelers nearly 2:1 in yards! They rushed on the Steelers Super AMAzeballs defense for over 250 yards! If not for FOUR very costly turnovers by Lamar, that would have been an ez BAL victory.
This is where it gets weird. When I compare the stats in my algo they are nearly identical and it spits out this game as a Pickem. However, something to note that I have not added in as weight on my algos calculations is strength of opponents. Which on wins, is not much for either team. However, on losses, they do have two common opponents (CLE and CIN). Both of which BAL SMASHED and one of which is INDys losses.(CLE)
Normally I would say this is a BAL all day game and if we see this match up in the playoffs I would most likely (barring some weird injury news) take BAL then. HOWEVER, this has been a weird week for BAL with like 7 defensive players on the COVID protocol list. To go with that, the whole BAL team has been restricted from practicing until SAT. Which means they got SAT practice in an have to travel to play tomorrow.
With all that said, this might be a game to contrary myself. However, with BAL being the more publicly bet team it might be more prudent to wait until closer to game time. Try to catch another +3 with IND or wait to take them at +2.5 in a teaser.
Carolina at Kansas City: CMC is back Baby! Haha. This should be a very interesting one. KC has been on a tear recently winning back to back games by more than 25. Carolina is off a tough primetime divisional loss to ATL last week that basically told you they don't want the last playoff spot.
Surprisingly my algo has this as 30-24 KC.
I am going to have to say this game will be largely dependent on CMCs health, productivity, and if CAR can keep pace or get a lead early. If so, KC does have the fourth-worst run defense in football with teams averaging 142.8 yards per game against them. AND even if they pull a lead, maybe there is some back door potential? CAR has only 1 loss this year by more than 10 points...
Houston at Jacksonville: Oh boy. . . Do you even wanna watch this game? Houston is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for a rematch against the team that gave them their only win this year. The difference in this game? JAX is starting a new 24 year old QB for his first start. And, they are giving him a defense that has given up at least 30 points in every game except one.
My algo has this as only HOU -4.5. However there is no adjustment in there for the QB change.
I expect JAX to help their fresh starting QB out as much as he can by giving the ball as much as they can to their RB. My algo marks this as a FANTASTIC spot to target Robinson in total yards rush+rec as not only will he have his normal workload against a horrible defense, but he will get the extra work that comes from the coaches trying to simplify the game for their QB.
NYG at Washington: Ugh, another dumpster fire game. NY played on Monday night and barely lost to the TB Bucs. Washington is off a bye. I want little to no part of this game. My algo has WAS as -2.5 but it also had WAS as -1 in the first match up. The NYG defense is on the rise and Danny Dimes seems to come out vs. the Washington Team. If anything, I would say WAS needs it more. They have one of the better chances to win the NFC East if they can pick up this game. (They have an easier back half of the schedule than most of the other teams)
LV at LAC: Sooo, LV is one of my favorite teams this year. I think they are building something real and I expect Gruden to take them deep in the playoffs in the next 3 years. Currently they are still in build mode, especially on defense, but Carr and the offense are starting to find some rhythms. Jacobs doesn't seem to be as good as his rookie year suggested but there's time to draft in that position. They are coming off a rough crap weather grind game vs. the Browns, where they came out the victor.
The Chargers also look like a great team for the future. I think once they get a change at head coach and redevelop their defense, they too could have something. They are coming off a last second comeback loss to the Broncos. Actually, they have been leading in most of their losses, only to give it up in the 4th. Herbert looks like a beast and his timing with Allen appears strong.
My algo has this as LAC -1 and I think this games about as coin flip as you can get. Both have above average offense and below average defense. I think I am going to lean LAC 1Q as they are home and have been coming out strong the last few games. However, if I catch this game live I will look to bet whoever's live spread gets 7+
Pittsburgh at Dallas: Not really feeling this is a game that has much value. PIT could easily blowout dallas 34-6. Dallas is about to start there 23 quarterback. Their D gives up 33+ per game. And oh btw, PIT is 7-0 with wins over the Titans and Ravens.
Why I won't take PIT is mostly the same reasoning. Dallas is starting an unknown at QB. DAL is 2-6 and PIT has a divisional game next week vs an opponent currently on a bye. This is PITs 3rd road game in a row. How much has the travel been wearing on the mental state.
I am just going to avoid this game.
Miami at Arizona: Well well well, looks like that MIA +3.5 play last week was good TUA TIME-ing! Seriously though, TUA did next to nothing in that game. Like almost 0. But that MIA defense.... WHOOO weeeeeeee
Both teams are coming into this game riding a 3 game winning streak. AZ is coming off a bye and has waayyyy the better offense. MIA comes into this game off a big upset vs the LA Rams and has a much better defense.
Again, I dont know if we can trust TUA yet. A home game vs a team traveling 3000 miles to play a 1pm start was tough enough. Now he has to travel across the country for his first road start? On a positive note, he will be playing indoors...
I think ill mostly avoid here.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTABALL
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The matchup of the Day. NO comes into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. However it is important to note that 3 of those wins came against teams with a below .500 record and all 4 of the wins were by less then a TD.
TB comes into this game riding a 3 game win streak but their most recent win was on Monday night (short week) vs the Giants in which it was close all game and NY had a chance to send the game into OT. Not something you want to see. It could be that the team overlooked NY in preparation for this game. Knowing that winning their division is more important than a game vs the Giants.
We should see the debut of Antonio Brown in this one. Currently I have found him at +162 to score a TD and +1200 to score the first TD. Might throw a free bet on one of those just for a fun sweat.
New England at NYJ: Not going to lie, this was going to be my upset of the year. Pats having almost 0 offensive weapons outside of Cams run game. Jets only real strength is stopping the run. Pats D is NOT what we are used to. The amount of missed tackles happing has to make Bellichek SICK. Darnold, at home, with the probably better defense, catching over a TD?!
However, Darnold now appears to be out. I still think NY has good EV to cover, especially with the extra FG, as both teams should struggle to put u any points. However, the upset just feels so much harder as Flacco is VERY low raked in my algo's QB index.
Singles (52-65, -19.01u) - Cole Beasley 50.5 Rec Yards Over (3.15u to win 3u)
- DEN +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
- DEN ml (2u to win 3.5u)
- Noah Fant 4.5 Rec Over (1.4u to win 1u)
- Jerry Judy 47.5 Rec Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
- CHI +6.5 (2u to win 2u)
- CHI TT 20 Over (2.1u to win 2u)
- Allen Robinson 72.5 Rec Yards Over (1.11u to win 1u)
- DET 1Q +0.5 (FB to win 2.12u)
- DET +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
- Will Fuller anytime TD (FB to win 3.3u)
- Brandin Cooks 4.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1u)
- James Robinson 22.5 Rec Yards Over (3.45u to win 3u)
- James Robinson 102.5 Rush and Rec Yards Over (1.2u to win 1u)
- James Robinson 3.5 Rec Over (1.5u to win 1u)
- Terry McLaurin 72.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
- LAC 1Q ml (2.4u to win 2.04u)
- Keenan Allen 6.5 Rec Over (2.5u to win 2u)
- Keenan Allen 75.5 Rec Yards Over (2.4u to win 2u)
- Kyler Murray 40.5 Rush Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
- Antonio Brown 1st TD scorer (2u to win 22u) Promo, if he scores not the first TD, but any other TD, the bet is returned.
Using up some free bets this week. They are long parlays and BBDLS so I am not going to type them all out. If something hits or is sweating into SNF, I will post. Parlays (6-20, +43.76u) - CHI +6, WAS, ml, HOU ml (2u to win 6.22u)
- DEN ml, SEA ml, TB ml (2u to win 12.24u)
- CHI +6.5, DEN ml, SEA ml, CAR +10, LAC +3.5, PIT ml, TB ml (2.5u to win 97.83u)
- I have a few parlays in for another 2.6u and some Free Bets.
Teasers (1-2, +16.35u) - GB pk***,*** DEN +10.5 (FB to win 11.03u)
BBDLS (0-41, -33.99u) - I have 1.7u of BBDLS in and some FB wagers.
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(FEB 02) EXCLUSIVE SUPER BOWL LIV EASY EARLY MONEY NFL PICK - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2 Betting Preview & Prediction When: Sunday, February 2 Where: HARD ROCK STADIUM - MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA TV: FOX SUPER BOWL LIV ODDS: Side: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2 Total**: 55**
Chiefs-Niners at Super Bowl LIV - Written by
Lester Cullan on January 21, 2020 Vegas sports gambling analyst heard on ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc. Two of this year’s most impressive teams will meet on
Sunday, February 2 in
Miami Gardens when the
San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs at
Super Bowl LIV. Both teams looked strong during the
Conference Championships, although the
San Francisco (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) appeared to have a sharper edge, shutting out the
Green Bay Packers in the first half before winning 37-20 as 7.5-point home favorites to claim the
NFC title.
The Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) made it back to their first
Super Bowl in 50 years by beating the
Tennessee Titans 35-24, also as 7.5-point home favorites. Kansas City's head coach
Andy Reid finally gets another chance to put his name in the record books; at the end of the 2004 campaign,
Reid led the
Philadelphia Eagles to
Super Bowl XXXIX, where they lost 24-21 to the
New England Patriots in Jacksonville.
The 49ers head coach
Kyle Shanahan is also looking for redemption after coming up short against the
Patriots. This is his first Big Game as a head coach, but he was the offensive coordinator for the
Atlanta Falcons at
Super Bowl LI in Houston, where the
Falcons coughed up that big lead and lost 34-28 in overtime.
SF 49er's: - 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- 49ers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- 49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- 49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win
- 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
KC Chiefs: - Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chiefs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
Game Total - 55 - Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
- Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 playoff games
The betting public is leaning towards a KC win, making the Chiefs a slight favorite and there are not many believers on the San Francisco side of the line, kinda like the public was towards gays in the 90's
Patrick Mahomes and the
Kansas City Chiefs might be a slight NFL betting favorite to win Super Bowl LIV, but
Jimmy Garoppolo and the
San Francisco 49ers are looking like a team that won’t go down quietly – kinda like a gay man.
If you’re looking for reasons to back the
Niners then you will be stretching for the few available reasons.
The
Kansas City Chiefs have
Travis Kelce but the 49ers have a tight end in
George Kittle that is touted as the BEST tight end in the game!
Kittle has 85 catches for 1,053 yards with 5 TD grabs. The problem is that Kittle has just 4 catches for 35 yards and absolutely no TD's in 2 games.
KC has a passing game that ranked them 5th in the
NFL and they score points, also 5th in the NFL averaging
28.2 points a game, but they are horrible running the ball, the
Chiefs rank 23rd in rushing and if
San Francisco can shut down Pat's passing game they can force them to use that shitty run game!
The
San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season ranked 6th in takeaways, 25 of them in all, they picked off
Aaron Rodgers 2 times in the
NFC Championship which ended up being the difference in their biggest game of the season.
Kansas City not only has a crappy rush game they cant't stop the run, this could be a problem for the betting public, the
49ers have the backs that have been under the radar this year, will this be the X-Factor? Will the rush game determine the winner of
Super Bowl 54, running the ball controls the clock and the team that controls the clock wins. The
Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of reasons to beat the
Niners but can they?
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